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Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale: A Multicountry Study
A. Tobías, M. Hashizume, Y. Honda, F. Sera, CFS. Ng, Y. Kim, D. Roye, Y. Chung, TN. Dang, H. Kim, W. Lee, C. Íñiguez, A. Vicedo-Cabrera, R. Abrutzky, Y. Guo, S. Tong, MSZS. Coelho, PHN. Saldiva, E. Lavigne, PM. Correa, NV. Ortega, H. Kan, S....
Language English Country United States
Document type Journal Article
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- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
Background: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators. Results: The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD. Conclusions: The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.
Center for Climate Change Adaptation National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba Japan
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research University of Oulu Oulu Finland
Centre for Statistical Methodology
Department of Earth Sciences University of Torino Torino Italy
Department of Environmental Health National Institute of Public Health Cuernavaca Morelos Mexico
Department of Environmental Health School of Public Health Fudan University Shanghai China
Department of Environmental Health University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
Department of Epidemiology Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Lisboa
Department of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health Service Rome Italy
Department of Family Medicine and Public Health University of Tartu Tartu Estonia
Department of Geography University of Santiago de Compostela Santiago de Compostela Spain
Department of Global Health Policy Graduate School of Medicine The University of Tokyo Tokyo
Department of Pathology Faculty of Medicine University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
Department of Physical Chemical and Natural Systems Universidad Pablo de Olavide Sevilla Spain
Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine Umeå University Umeå Sweden
Department of Public Health Environments and Society
Department of Public Health Universidad de los Andes Santiago Chile
Department of Quantitative Methods School of Medicine University of the Republic Montevideo Uruguay
Department of Statistics and Computational Research Universitat de València València Spain
EPIUnit Instituto de Sa√∫de P√∫blica Universidade do Porto Porto Portugal
Faculty of Geography Babes Bolay University Cluj Napoca Romania
Graduate School of Public Health Seoul National University Seoul Republic of Korea
Institute for the Environment Brunel University London London United Kingdom
Institute of Atmospheric Physics Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic Prague Czech Republic
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research Barcelona Spain
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine
Institute of Tropical Medicine Alexander von Humboldt Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia Lima Peru
National Institute of Environmental Health Science National Health Research Institutes Zhunan Taiwan
Norwegian institute of Public Health Oslo Norway
Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research University of Bern Bern Switzerland
School of Epidemiology and Public Health Faculty of Medicine University of Ottawa Ottawa Canada
School of Public Health and Social Work Queensland University of Technology Brisbane Australia
School of the Environment Yale University New Haven Connecticut
School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health Nagasaki University Nagasaki
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
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- $a Tobías, Aurelio $u Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain $u School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki
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- $a Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale: A Multicountry Study / $c A. Tobías, M. Hashizume, Y. Honda, F. Sera, CFS. Ng, Y. Kim, D. Roye, Y. Chung, TN. Dang, H. Kim, W. Lee, C. Íñiguez, A. Vicedo-Cabrera, R. Abrutzky, Y. Guo, S. Tong, MSZS. Coelho, PHN. Saldiva, E. Lavigne, PM. Correa, NV. Ortega, H. Kan, S. Osorio, J. Kyselý, A. Urban, H. Orru, E. Indermitte, JJK. Jaakkola, NRI. Ryti, M. Pascal, V. Huber, A. Schneider, K. Katsouyanni, A. Analitis, A. Entezari, F. Mayvaneh, P. Goodman, A. Zeka, P. Michelozzi, F. de'Donato, B. Alahmad, MH. Diaz, C. De la Cruz Valencia, A. Overcenco, D. Houthuijs, C. Ameling, S. Rao, F. Di Ruscio, G. Carrasco, X. Seposo, B. Nunes, J. Madureira, IH. Holobaca, N. Scovronick, F. Acquaotta, B. Forsberg, C. Åström, MS. Ragettli, YL. Guo, BY. Chen, S. Li, V. Colistro, A. Zanobetti, J. Schwartz, DV. Dung, B. Armstrong, A. Gasparrini
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- $a Background: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators. Results: The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD. Conclusions: The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.
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