An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.

Air Health Science Division Health Canada Ottawa ON Canada; School of Epidemiology and Public Health University of Ottawa Ottawa ON Canada

Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research University of Oulu Oulu Finland

Climate Air Quality Research Unit School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine Monash University Melbourne Australia; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine Monash University Melbourne Australia

Department of Environmental Engineering Kyoto University Kyoto Japan

Department of Environmental Health Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health Boston MA USA

Department of Environmental Health National Institute of Public Health Cuernavaca Morelos Mexico

Department of Epidemiology Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge Lisboa Portugal

Department of Epidemiology Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge Lisboa Portugal; EPIUnit Instituto de Saúde Pública Universidade do Porto Porto Portugal

Department of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health Service Rome Italy

Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases Institute of Tropical Medicine Nagasaki University Nagasaki Japan

Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine Umeå University Umeå Sweden

Department of Public Health Universidad de los Andes Santiago Chile

Department of Social and Environmental Health Research London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London UK

Department of Statistics and Computational Research University of Valencia Environmental Health Joint Research Unit FiSABIO UV UJI CIBERESP Spain

Environmental and Occupational Medicine National Taiwan University NTU Hospital Taipei Taiwan

Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences Hakim Sabzevari University Sabzevar 9617916487 Khorasan Razavi Iran

Faculty of Health and Sport Science University of Tsukuba Tsukuba Japan

Faculty of Public Health University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Ho Chi Minh City Ho Chi Minh City Viet Nam

Faculty of Public Health University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Ho Chi Minh City Ho Chi Minh City Viet Nam; The Institute of Research and Development Duy Tan University Da Nang Viet Nam

Graduate School of Public Health Institute of Health and Environment Seoul National University Seoul Republic of Korea

Hospital Vista Hermosa Bogotá Colombia

Institute of Advanced Studies of the University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil

Institute of Advanced Studies of the University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil; Climate Change Cluster Faculty of Sciences University of Technology Sydney Sydney Australia

Institute of Atmospheric Physics Czech Academy of Sciences Prague Czech Republic

Institute of Atmospheric Physics Czech Academy of Sciences Prague Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic

Institute of Environment Health and Societies Brunel University London London UK

Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research Spanish Council for Scientific Research Barcelona Spain

Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health University of Tartu Tartu Estonia

Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health University of Tartu Tartu Estonia; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine Umeå University Umeå Sweden

Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health of R Moldova Chisinau Republic of Moldova

Santé Publique France French National Public Health Agency Saint Maurice France

School of Forestry and Environmental Studies Yale University New Haven CT USA

School of Physics Dublin Institute of Technology Dublin Ireland

School of Public Health Institute of Environment and Human Health Anhui Medical University Hefei China; Shanghai Children's Medical Centre Shanghi Jiao Tong University Shanghai China; School of Public Health and Social Work Queensland University of Technology Brisbane QLD Australia

School of Public Health Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health Fudan University Shanghai China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention Fudan University Shanghai China

Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Basel Switzerland; University of Basel Basel Switzerland

Universidad de Buenos Aires Facultad de Ciencias Sociales Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani Buenos Aires Argentina

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