BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a life-threatening disease with a heterogeneous course. Even some young patients are at increased risk of severe course or death, as they can face severe complications. It would be very useful to have a cheap and easily available marker to predict COVID-19 course in the early stages of the disease. The COVID-19 prognostic score could be a very useful clinical indicator available at the time of primary contact with the patient. METHODS: The COVID-19 prognostic score and the clinical condition together with selected laboratory parameters were evaluated in patients with respiratory tract infection and a positive PCR test for the SARS-CoV-2 during the first contact with the patient. Prognostic significance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC). Selected parameters of the blood count and hemostasis, as well as selected biochemical indicators, were examined too. RESULTS: Thirty-seven of 164 patients developed serious symptoms. The COVID-19 score had one of the highest AUC values (0.855) of all markers. The highest combination of sensitivity (91.9%) and specificity (71.7%) for identifying patients with a subsequent moderate and severe course of the disease was achieved at the threshold 1.5. The predictive value of a negative test is beneficial too (0.968). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 prognostic score is a promising indicator stratifying patients with COVID-19 into prognostic groups at the time of the first contact, thus allowing the timely provision of increased care in patients at high risk of severe development.

4th Department of Internal Medicine Hematology University Hospital Hradec Králové Hradec Králové Czech Republic

Department of Biological and Medical Sciences Faculty of Pharmacy Charles University Hradec Králové Czech Republic

Faculty of Medicine in Hradec Králové Charles University Hradec Králové Czech Republic

Pulmonary Clinic University Hospital Hradec Králové Hradec Králové Czech Republic

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