multivariate time series
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Springer series in statistics
2nd ed. 357 s.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate lag-response associations and effect modifications of exposure to floods with risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality on a global scale. DESIGN: Time series study. SETTING: 761 communities in 35 countries or territories with at least one flood event during the study period. PARTICIPANTS: Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network database, Australian Cause of Death Unit Record File, New Zealand Integrated Data Infrastructure, and the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health Network database. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome was daily counts of deaths. An estimation for the lag-response association between flood and daily mortality risk was modelled, and the relative risks over the lag period were cumulated to calculate overall effects. Attributable fractions of mortality due to floods were further calculated. A quasi-Poisson model with a distributed lag non-linear function was used to examine how daily death risk was associated with flooded days in each community, and then the community specific associations were pooled using random effects multivariate meta-analyses. Flooded days were defined as days from the start date to the end date of flood events. RESULTS: A total of 47.6 million all cause deaths, 11.1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 4.9 million respiratory deaths were analysed. Over the 761 communities, mortality risks increased and persisted for up to 60 days (50 days for cardiovascular mortality) after a flooded day. The cumulative relative risks for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were 1.021 (95% confidence interval 1.006 to 1.036), 1.026 (1.005 to 1.047), and 1.049 (1.008 to 1.092), respectively. The associations varied across countries or territories and regions. The flood-mortality associations appeared to be modified by climate type and were stronger in low income countries and in populations with a low human development index or high proportion of older people. In communities impacted by flood, up to 0.10% of all cause deaths, 0.18% of cardiovascular deaths, and 0.41% of respiratory deaths were attributed to floods. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality increased for up to 60 days after exposure to flood and the associations could vary by local climate type, socioeconomic status, and older age.
... THE NATURE OF TIME SERIES 15 -- 1.1 DESCRIPTION OF TIME SERIES - 16 -- 1.2 WHITE NOISE - - 17 -- 1.3 ... ... STATIONARITY 17 -- 1A TRANSFORMATIONS OF TIME SERIES 19 -- 1.5 TREND, SEASONAL, AND IRREGULAR PATTERNS ... ... 21 -- 16 ARMA MODELS OF TIME SERIES 22 -- 1.7 STYLIZED EACTS ABOUT TIME SERIES 23 -- 2. ... ... NOTES ON TRENDS IN TIME SERIES -- SEASONALITY IN TIME SERIES — -- REMOVING SEASONAL PATTERNS ESTIMATING ... ... MULTIPLE TIME SERIES — 1A1 -- A.l VAR MODELS — 1A3 -- A.1.1 STRUCTURAL FORM, REDUCED FORM, AND IDENTIFICATION ...
1. elektronické vydání 1 online zdroj (220 stran)
Úvod: Moderní přístup k léčbě pacientů s infarktem myokardu s elevacemi úseku ST (STEMI) je založen na rychlém provedení přímé perkutánní koronární intervence (dPCI) s rekanalizací infarktové tepny. Konečný účinek léčby z velké části závisí na úrovni organizace přednemocniční péče, díky které lze dosáhnout zkrácení doby celkové ischemie, a tím zlepšit prognózu pacienta. Cíl: Posouzení vývoje časových intervalů přednemocniční péče a vlivu typu transportu na tyto intervaly u pacientů s akutním STEMI ošetřených přímou PCI v letech 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014 a 2016. Metody: Do retrospektivní analýzy byli zařazeni pacienti s akutním STEMI, kteří podstoupili přímou perkutánní koronární intervenci v čase do 12 hodin od začátku potíží. Celkově bylo do analýzy zařazeno 1 250 pacientů. Ke zmapování vývoje v průběhu posledních osmi let byly použity univariantní a multivariantní analýzy. Kategorické proměnné byly analyzovány χ2 testem, spojité proměnné jednofaktorovou analýzou ANOVA a obecnými lineárními modely, kde hlavní zaměření bylo na analýzu časových intervalů, a hlavními sledovanými faktory byly rok události a typ transportu. Výsledky: Časové intervaly se až na malé odchylky mezi jednotlivými lety příliš neměnily, s výjimkou roku 2014, kde důvod odchylky nesouvisel s přednemocniční péčí. Limit 120 minut od prvního kontaktu se zdravotnickým personálem do nafouknutí balonku (first-medical-contact-to-balloon time, FMCTB) byl splněn u více než 80 % pacientů (80,8 %), doporučený limit 90 minut u 55,2 % pacientů. Klíčovým faktorem ovlivňujícím celkový čas byla pacientova volba způsobu transportu – u pacientů, kteří využili primárního transportu, byly intervaly významně kratší (FMCTB v průměru o 38,2 minuty a celková doba ischemie o 92,9 minuty). Hlavními intervaly, ve kterých tento rozdíl narůstal, byly vedle zpoždění způsobeného pacientem (103 minut u pacientů s primárním transportem, 131 u pacientů se sekundárním) bohužel i prodlení od oznámení pacientových problémů systému po vyhodnocení EKG (26 minut, pokud pacient zavolá rychlou zdravotnickou pomoc [RZP], 52 minut, pokud se dopraví k lékaři sám) a následný transport na katetrizační sál (60 minut při primárním, 97 minut při sekundárním transportu). Zvláště u posledních dvou intervalů vidíme u sekundárního módu transportu jednoznačný prostor pro zlepšení. Závěr: Až na malé výjimky se časové intervaly mezi jednotlivými lety příliš nemění. Zcela zásadní vliv na celkovou dobu ischemie však má pacientovo rozhodnutí, zda zvolí primární transport, nebo se dopraví k nejbližšímu lékaři či na ambulanci sám (sekundární transport).
Introduction: A modern treatment of patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is based on a rapid primary percutaneous coronary intervention with direct recanalization of the affected coronary artery (dPCI). The outcome of the treatment depends largely on the pre-hospital care management, which can reduce the total ischaemic time and subsequently improve patient's outlook. Aims: The principal aims of this retrospective study were to assess the development of time intervals related to the pre-hospital care and the effect of the mode of transportation to the cathlab (primary vs secondary) on these intervals in patients with acute STEMI treated by primary PCI in 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016. Methods: We have analysed patients with STEMI treated using PCI within 12 h of symptoms onset. In total, 1250 patients were included. To evaluate the development over the last 8 years, uni- and multivariate analyses were used. Categorical variables were analysed using chi-squared tests while continuous variables were analysed using one-way ANOVA and general linear models. The effect of the year and of mode of transportation on time intervals was studied. Results: The time intervals did not significantly differ among years with the exception of 2014 where the reason of the deviation was however not related to the quality of the pre-hospital care. The 120 min limit from the first medical contact to unblocking the affected artery (FMCTB) was met in more than 80% patients (80.8%), the recommended limit of 90 min in 55.2% of patients. The key factor affecting the total ischaemic time was however the patients' choice of the mode of transportation – in patients who opted for the primary route of transportation, i.e., called the ambulance, the intervals were significantly shorter (FMCTB on average by 38.2 min and total ischaemic time by 92.9 min). The principal delays were detected in the patients' delay (103 min in patients with primary transportation route, 131 in patients with secondary route) as well as, unfortunately, in the intervals between reporting the patients' problem to the system and ECG-confirmed diagnosis (26 min if the patient calls ambulance vs 52 min if they present at a general practitioner or outpatient clinic) and subsequent transportation to the cathlab (60 min for primary route, 97 for secondary). The latter two should be in particular targeted and we can see a significant room for improvement here. Conclusion: The time intervals do not vary among individual years (with some exceptions). The route of transportation, which is a patient's choice, on the total ischaemic time is however a crucial and predominant factor affecting the total ischaemic time as well as individual intervals.
- MeSH
- balónková koronární angioplastika metody MeSH
- čas zasáhnout při rozvinutí nemoci klasifikace normy statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- časové faktory MeSH
- elektrokardiografie MeSH
- infarkt myokardu s elevacemi ST úseků * diagnóza chirurgie MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- transport pacientů klasifikace MeSH
- výsledek terapie MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- klinická studie MeSH
... In the twenty years since publication of the first edition of The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time ... ... these and other current developments in the second edition of The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time ... ... The Second Edition develops the dynamics of multivariate failure time data, extends the present material ... ... Introduction -- 1.1 Failure Time Data, 1 -- 1.2 Failure Time Distributions, 6 -- 1.3 Time Origins, Censoring ... ... Failure Time Models -- 2.1 Introduction, 31 -- 2.2 Some Continuous Parametric Failure Time Models, 31 ...
Wiley series in probability and statistics
2nd ed. xiii, 439 s.
- Klíčová slova
- Analýza dat, Analýza statistická, Regrese,
- Konspekt
- Statistika
- NLK Obory
- statistika, zdravotnická statistika
MOTIVATION: The association between weather conditions and stroke incidence has been a subject of interest for several years, yet the findings from various studies remain inconsistent. Additionally, predictive modelling in this context has been infrequent. This study explores the relationship of extremely high ischaemic stroke incidence and meteorological factors within the Slovak population. Furthermore, it aims to construct forecasting models of extremely high number of strokes. METHODS: Over a five-year period, a total of 52,036 cases of ischemic stroke were documented. Days exhibiting a notable surge in ischemic stroke occurrences (surpassing the 90th percentile of historical records) were identified as extreme cases. These cases were then scrutinized alongside daily meteorological parameters spanning from 2015 to 2019. To create forecasts for the occurrence of these extreme cases one day in advance, three distinct methods were employed: Logistic regression, Random Forest for Time Series, and Croston's method. RESULTS: For each of the analyzed stroke centers, the cross-correlations between instances of extremely high stroke numbers and meteorological factors yielded negligible results. Predictive performance achieved by forecasts generated through multivariate logistic regression and Random Forest for time series analysis, which incorporated meteorological data, was on par with that of Croston's method. Notably, Croston's method relies solely on the stroke time series data. All three forecasting methods exhibited limited predictive accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: The task of predicting days characterized by an exceptionally high number of strokes proved to be challenging across all three explored methods. The inclusion of meteorological parameters did not yield substantive improvements in forecasting accuracy.
- MeSH
- incidence MeSH
- ischemická cévní mozková příhoda * epidemiologie MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- logistické modely MeSH
- meteorologické pojmy MeSH
- počasí * MeSH
- předpověď * metody MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Slovenská republika MeSH
OBJECTIVE: As an excessive gaming is the addiction of the 21th century, purpose of our study was to investigate how sense of coherence interacts with gaming time, choice of various games types, age and gender characteristics. Our task was to evaluate relationship between computer gaming and an adolescent's sense of coherence. METHODS: A cross-sectional study based on a self-reported questionnaire was performed among the representative samples of 1,806 adolescents aged 13-18 years. Adolescents reported the amount of time spent gaming computer games, types of games, as well as sense of coherence. The relations between the choice of computer games type, time spent gaming computer games and sense of coherence of respondents were assessed by odds ratio using multivariate regression analysis. RESULTS: 32.9% of boys and 81.1% of girls reported gaming computer games less than 5 hours per day during the last month (p < 0.001). 30.9% of boys and 4.1% of girls reported gaming computer games more than 10 hours per day during the last month (p < 0.001). Boys and girls aged 13-15 with a weak sense of coherence had significantly higher probability to play action or combat computer games for 5 or more hours per day in comparison to the respondents who had a strong sense of coherence. Also, this probability was 2 times higher among boys than among girls. CONCLUSION: Sense of coherence is a useful tool to identify adolescents who are at risk of excessive gaming. Game playing time is linked to the sense of coherence. Adolescent with a weak sense of coherence had a higher probability to play more times, especially in younger age.
- MeSH
- časové faktory MeSH
- chování mladistvých * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- návykové chování psychologie MeSH
- průřezové studie MeSH
- průzkumy a dotazníky MeSH
- psychologie adolescentů * MeSH
- videohry psychologie statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- životní smysluplnost * MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Litva MeSH
