AIM: To compare the prognostic accuracy of six scoring models for up to three-year mortality and rates of hospitalisation due to acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in STEMI patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 593 patients treated with primary PCI were evaluated. Prospective follow-up of patients was ≥3 years. Thirty-day, one-year, two-year, and three-year mortality rates were 4.0%, 7.3%, 8.9%, and 10.6%, respectively. Six risk scores--the TIMI score and derived dynamic TIMI, CADILLAC, PAMI, Zwolle, and GRACE--showed a high predictive accuracy for six- and 12-month mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.73-0.85. The best predictive values for long-term mortality were obtained by GRACE. The next best-performing scores were CADILLAC, Zwolle, and Dynamic TIMI. All risk scores had a lower prediction accuracy for repeat hospitalisation due to ADHF, except Zwolle with the discriminatory capacity for hospitalisation up to two years (AUC, 0.80-0.83). CONCLUSIONS: All tested models showed a high predictive value for the estimation of one-year mortality, but GRACE appears to be the most suitable for the prediction for a longer follow-up period. The tested models exhibited an ability to predict the risk of ADHF, especially the Zwolle model.

Department of Cardiology University Hospital Brno Brno Czech Republic

Faculty of Medicine Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic

Hospital Podlesi A S Trinec Czech Republic

Hospital Trebic Trebic Czech Republic

Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic

International Clinical Research Center Department of Cardiovascular Disease St Anne's University Hospital Brno Czech Republic

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$a Littnerova, Simona $u Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.

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$a AIM: To compare the prognostic accuracy of six scoring models for up to three-year mortality and rates of hospitalisation due to acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in STEMI patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 593 patients treated with primary PCI were evaluated. Prospective follow-up of patients was ≥3 years. Thirty-day, one-year, two-year, and three-year mortality rates were 4.0%, 7.3%, 8.9%, and 10.6%, respectively. Six risk scores--the TIMI score and derived dynamic TIMI, CADILLAC, PAMI, Zwolle, and GRACE--showed a high predictive accuracy for six- and 12-month mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.73-0.85. The best predictive values for long-term mortality were obtained by GRACE. The next best-performing scores were CADILLAC, Zwolle, and Dynamic TIMI. All risk scores had a lower prediction accuracy for repeat hospitalisation due to ADHF, except Zwolle with the discriminatory capacity for hospitalisation up to two years (AUC, 0.80-0.83). CONCLUSIONS: All tested models showed a high predictive value for the estimation of one-year mortality, but GRACE appears to be the most suitable for the prediction for a longer follow-up period. The tested models exhibited an ability to predict the risk of ADHF, especially the Zwolle model.

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$a Kala, Petr $u Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.

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$a Jarkovsky, Jiri $u Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.

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$a Kubkova, Lenka $u Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic; International Clinical Research Center-Department of Cardiovascular Disease, St Anne's University Hospital, Brno, Czech Republic.

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$a Kluz, Krystyna $u Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; Hospital Podlesi A.S., Trinec, Czech Republic. $7 xx0243485

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$a Kubena, Petr $u Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.

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$a Toman, Ondrej $u Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; International Clinical Research Center-Department of Cardiovascular Disease, St Anne's University Hospital, Brno, Czech Republic.

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$a Poloczek, Martin $u Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.

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$a Spinar, Jindrich $u Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic; International Clinical Research Center-Department of Cardiovascular Disease, St Anne's University Hospital, Brno, Czech Republic.

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$a Dusek, Ladislav $u Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.

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