Current and expected changes in global climate are major threat for biological diversity affecting individuals, communities and ecosystems. However, there is no general trend in the plants response to the climate change. The aim of present study was to evaluate impact of the future climate changes on the distribution of holomycotrophic orchid species using ecological niche modeling approach. Three different scenarios of future climate changes were tested to obtain the most comprehensive insight in the possible habitat loss of 16 holomycotrophic orchids. The extinction of Cephalanthera austiniae was predicted in all analyses. The coverage of suitable niches of Pogoniopsis schenckii will decrease to 1-30% of its current extent. The reduction of at least 50% of climatic niche of Erythrorchis cassythoides and Limodorum abortivum will be observed. In turn, the coverage of suitable niches of Hexalectris spicata, Uleiorchis ulaei and Wullschlaegelia calcarata may be even 16-74 times larger than in the present time. The conducted niche modeling and analysis of the similarity of their climatic tolerance showed instead that the future modification of the coverage of their suitable niches will not be unified and the future climate changes may be not so harmful for holomycotrophic orchids as expected.

Department of Molecular Evolution Faculty of Biology University of Gdańsk Wita Stwosza 59 80308 Gdańsk Poland

Department of Plant Taxonomy and Nature Conservation Faculty of Biology University of Gdansk Wita Stwosza 59 80308 Gdańsk Poland

Department of Plant Taxonomy and Nature Conservation Faculty of Biology University of Gdansk Wita Stwosza 59 80308 Gdańsk Poland Department of Biodiversity Research Global Change Research Institute AS CR Bělidla 4a 60300 Brno Czech Republic

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