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Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia
CM. Zohner, L. Mo, SS. Renner, JC. Svenning, Y. Vitasse, BM. Benito, A. Ordonez, F. Baumgarten, JF. Bastin, V. Sebald, PB. Reich, J. Liang, GJ. Nabuurs, S. de-Miguel, G. Alberti, C. Antón-Fernández, R. Balazy, UB. Brändli, HYH. Chen, C. Chisholm,...
Jazyk angličtina Země Spojené státy americké
Typ dokumentu časopisecké články, práce podpořená grantem, Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
NLK
Free Medical Journals
od 1915 do Před 6 měsíci
Freely Accessible Science Journals
od 1915 do Před 6 měsíci
PubMed Central
od 1915 do Před 6 měsíci
Europe PubMed Central
od 1915 do Před 6 měsíci
Open Access Digital Library
od 1915-01-01
Open Access Digital Library
od 1915-01-15
PubMed
32393624
DOI
10.1073/pnas.1920816117
Knihovny.cz E-zdroje
- MeSH
- časoprostorová analýza MeSH
- fenotyp MeSH
- klimatické změny * MeSH
- lesy MeSH
- listy rostlin růst a vývoj MeSH
- nízká teplota * MeSH
- roční období * MeSH
- stromy růst a vývoj MeSH
- teplota MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Asie MeSH
- Evropa MeSH
- Severní Amerika MeSH
Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.
Białowieża Geobotanical Station Faculty of Biology University of Warsaw PL 17 230 Bialowieza Poland
Centre for Forest Research Université du Québec à Montréal Montreal H3C 3P8 Canada
Coordination Centre for Environmental Projects Polish State Forests 02 362 Warsaw Poland
Department of Biological Sciences University of Bergen 5020 Bergen Norway
Department of Botany Dr Harisingh Gour Vishwavidyalaya University Sagar Madhya Pradesh 470003 India
Department of Geomatics Forest Research Institute Sekocin Stary 05 090 Raszyn Poland
Institute of Forestry and Rural Engineering Estonian University of Life Sciences 51006 Tartu Estonia
Institute of Integrative Biology ETH Zurich 8092 Zurich Switzerland
National Forest Centre 96001 Zvolen Slovak Republic
School of Biological Sciences University of Bristol Bristol BS8 1TQ United Kingdom
School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan Technical University of Munich 85354 Freising Germany
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL CH 8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland
Citace poskytuje Crossref.org
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- $a Zohner, Constantin M $u Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland; constantin.zohner@t-online.de.
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- $a Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia / $c CM. Zohner, L. Mo, SS. Renner, JC. Svenning, Y. Vitasse, BM. Benito, A. Ordonez, F. Baumgarten, JF. Bastin, V. Sebald, PB. Reich, J. Liang, GJ. Nabuurs, S. de-Miguel, G. Alberti, C. Antón-Fernández, R. Balazy, UB. Brändli, HYH. Chen, C. Chisholm, E. Cienciala, S. Dayanandan, TM. Fayle, L. Frizzera, D. Gianelle, AM. Jagodzinski, B. Jaroszewicz, T. Jucker, S. Kepfer-Rojas, ML. Khan, HS. Kim, H. Korjus, VK. Johannsen, D. Laarmann, M. Lang, T. Zawila-Niedzwiecki, PA. Niklaus, A. Paquette, H. Pretzsch, P. Saikia, P. Schall, V. Šebeň, M. Svoboda, E. Tikhonova, H. Viana, C. Zhang, X. Zhao, TW. Crowther,
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- $a Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.
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- $a Mo, Lidong $u Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
- 700 1_
- $a Renner, Susanne S $u Systematic Botany and Mycology, Department of Biology, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, 80638 Munich, Germany.
- 700 1_
- $a Svenning, Jens-Christian $u Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark. Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.
- 700 1_
- $a Vitasse, Yann $u Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
- 700 1_
- $a Benito, Blas M $u Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway.
- 700 1_
- $a Ordonez, Alejandro $u Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark. Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, University of Utrecht, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands.
- 700 1_
- $a Baumgarten, Frederik $u Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
- 700 1_
- $a Bastin, Jean-François $u Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland. Computational and Applied Vegetation Ecology Lab, Department of Applied Ecology and Environmental Biology, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium.
- 700 1_
- $a Sebald, Veronica $u Systematic Botany and Mycology, Department of Biology, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, 80638 Munich, Germany.
- 700 1_
- $a Reich, Peter B $u Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108. Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith NSW 2753, Australia.
- 700 1_
- $a Liang, Jingjing $u Lab of Forest Advanced Computing and Artificial Intelligence, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907.
- 700 1_
- $a Nabuurs, Gert-Jan $u Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research, 6700AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands. Forest Ecology and Forest Management, Wageningen University and Research, 6700AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
- 700 1_
- $a de-Miguel, Sergio $u Department of Crop and Forest Sciences, University of Lleida, E25198 Lleida, Spain. Joint Research Unit, Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia CTFC-Centre for Research in Agrotechnology, E25280, Solsona, Spain.
- 700 1_
- $a Alberti, Giorgio $u Department of Agricultural, Food, Environmental and Animal Sciences, University of Udine, 33100 Udine, Italy. Institute of BioEconomy, National Research Council, 50019 Florence, Italy.
- 700 1_
- $a Antón-Fernández, Clara $u Division of Forestry and Forest Resources NIBIO, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, NO-1431 Ås, Norway.
- 700 1_
- $a Balazy, Radomir $u Department of Geomatics, Forest Research Institute, Sekocin Stary, 05-090 Raszyn, Poland.
- 700 1_
- $a Brändli, Urs-Beat $u Swiss National Forest Inventory, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
- 700 1_
- $a Chen, Han Y H $u Faculty of Natural Resources Management, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, ON P7B 5E1, Canada. Key Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Processes of the Ministry of Education, School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, 350117 Fujian, China.
- 700 1_
- $a Chisholm, Chelsea $u Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
- 700 1_
- $a Cienciala, Emil $u Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research IFER, CZ 254 01 Jilove u Prahy, Czech Republic. Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic.
- 700 1_
- $a Dayanandan, Selvadurai $u Centre for Structural and Functional Genomics, Biology Department, Concordia University, Montreal, QC H4B 1R6, Canada. Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Biology Department, Concordia University, Montreal, QC H4B 1R6, Canada.
- 700 1_
- $a Fayle, Tom M $u Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Entomology, 370 05 Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic. Institute for Tropical Biology and Conservation, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, 88400 Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia.
- 700 1_
- $a Frizzera, Lorenzo $u Department of Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, Trentino, Italy.
- 700 1_
- $a Gianelle, Damiano $u Department of Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, Trentino, Italy.
- 700 1_
- $a Jagodzinski, Andrzej M $u Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, PL-62-035 Kórnik, Poland. Faculty of Forestry, Department of Game Management and Forest Protection, Poznan University of Life Sciences, PL-60-625 Poznan, Poland.
- 700 1_
- $a Jaroszewicz, Bogdan $u Białowieża Geobotanical Station, Faculty of Biology, University of Warsaw, PL-17-230 Bialowieza, Poland.
- 700 1_
- $a Jucker, Tommaso $u School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TQ United Kingdom.
- 700 1_
- $a Kepfer-Rojas, Sebastian $u Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg C 1958, Denmark.
- 700 1_
- $a Khan, Mohammed Latif $u Department of Botany, Dr. Harisingh Gour Vishwavidyalaya University, Sagar, Madhya Pradesh 470003, India.
- 700 1_
- $a Kim, Hyun Seok $u Department of Forest Sciences, Seoul National University, 08826 Seoul, Republic of Korea. Interdisciplinary Program in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Seoul National University, 08826 Seoul, Republic of Korea. National Center for Agro Meteorology, 08826 Seoul, Republic of Korea. Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, 08826 Seoul, Republic of Korea.
- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
- $a Laarmann, Diana $u Institute of Forestry and Rural Engineering, Estonian University of Life Sciences, 51006 Tartu, Estonia.
- 700 1_
- $a Lang, Mait $u Institute of Forestry and Rural Engineering, Estonian University of Life Sciences, 51006 Tartu, Estonia. Tartu Observatory, University of Tartu, 61602 Tõravere, Estonia.
- 700 1_
- $a Zawila-Niedzwiecki, Tomasz $u Coordination Centre for Environmental Projects, Polish State Forests, 02-362 Warsaw, Poland.
- 700 1_
- $a Niklaus, Pascal A $u Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland.
- 700 1_
- $a Paquette, Alain $u Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, H3C 3P8 Canada.
- 700 1_
- $a Pretzsch, Hans $u School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany.
- 700 1_
- $a Saikia, Purabi $u Department of Environmental Sciences, Central University of Jharkhand, Brambe, Ranchi, Jharkhand 835205, India.
- 700 1_
- $a Schall, Peter $u Silviculture and Forest Ecology of the Temperate Zones, University of Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen, Germany.
- 700 1_
- $a Šebeň, Vladimír $u National Forest Centre, 96001 Zvolen, Slovak Republic.
- 700 1_
- $a Svoboda, Miroslav $u Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Praha 6 Suchdol, 16521, Czech Republic.
- 700 1_
- $a Tikhonova, Elena $u Center for Forest Ecology and Productivity, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117997 Moscow, Russian Federation.
- 700 1_
- $a Viana, Helder $u Agricultural High School, Polytechnic Institute of Viseu, 3500-606 Viseu, Portugal. Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Quinta de Prados, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal.
- 700 1_
- $a Zhang, Chunyu $u Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, 100083 Beijing, China.
- 700 1_
- $a Zhao, Xiuhai $u Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, 100083 Beijing, China.
- 700 1_
- $a Crowther, Thomas W $u Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
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