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Assessing the quality of evidence from epidemiological agent-based models for the COVID-19 pandemic

M. Maziarz, M. Zach

. 2021 ; 43 (1) : 10. [pub] 20210120

Language English Country Switzerland

Document type Journal Article

Persistent link   https://www.medvik.cz/link/bmc21011588

Grant support
805498 H2020 European Research Council

Agent-based models (ABMs) are one of the main sources of evidence for decisions regarding mitigation and suppression measures against the spread of SARS-CoV-2. These models have not been previously included in the hierarchy of evidence put forth by the evidence-based medicine movement, which prioritizes those research methods that deliver results less susceptible to the risk of confounding. We point out the need to assess the quality of evidence delivered by ABMs and ask the question of what is the risk that assumptions entertained in ABMs do not include all the key factors and make model predictions susceptible to the problem of confounding.

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