Background: Neutralizing anti-drug antibodies (ADA) can greatly reduce the efficacy of biopharmaceuticals used to treat patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). However, the biological factors pre-disposing an individual to develop ADA are poorly characterized. Thus, there is an unmet clinical need for biomarkers to predict the development of immunogenicity, and subsequent treatment failure. Up to 35% of MS patients treated with beta interferons (IFNβ) develop ADA. Here we use machine learning to predict immunogenicity against IFNβ utilizing serum metabolomics data. Methods: Serum samples were collected from 89 MS patients as part of the ABIRISK consortium-a multi-center prospective study of ADA development. Metabolites and ADA were quantified prior to and after IFNβ treatment. Thirty patients became ADA positive during the first year of treatment (ADA+). We tested the efficacy of six binary classification models using 10-fold cross validation; k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, random forest, support vector machine and lasso (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) logistic regression with and without interactions. Results: We were able to predict future immunogenicity from baseline metabolomics data. Lasso logistic regression with/without interactions and support vector machines were the most successful at identifying ADA+ or ADA- cases, respectively. Furthermore, patients who become ADA+ had a distinct metabolic response to IFNβ in the first 3 months, with 29 differentially regulated metabolites. Machine learning algorithms could also predict ADA status based on metabolite concentrations at 3 months. Lasso logistic regressions had the greatest proportion of correct classifications [F1 score (accuracy measure) = 0.808, specificity = 0.913]. Finally, we hypothesized that serum lipids could contribute to ADA development by altering immune-cell lipid rafts. This was supported by experimental evidence demonstrating that, prior to IFNβ exposure, lipid raft-associated lipids were differentially expressed between MS patients who became ADA+ or remained ADA-. Conclusion: Serum metabolites are a promising biomarker for prediction of ADA development in MS patients treated with IFNβ, and could provide novel insight into mechanisms of immunogenicity.

Centre for Cardiometabolic and Vascular Medicine University College London London United Kingdom

Centre for Rheumatology University College London London United Kingdom

Department of Clinical Neuroscience Center for Molecular Medicine Karolinska Institutet Karolinska University Hospital Huddinge Sweden

Department of Neuroinflammation University College London Institute of Neurology and National Hospital of Neurology and Neurosurgery London United Kingdom

Department of Neurology and Centre of Clinical Neuroscience General University Hospital and 1st Faculty of Medicine Charles University Prague Prague Czechia

Scicross AB Skövde Sweden

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