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Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations
G. Chen, Y. Guo, X. Yue, S. Tong, A. Gasparrini, ML. Bell, B. Armstrong, J. Schwartz, JJK. Jaakkola, A. Zanobetti, E. Lavigne, PH. Nascimento Saldiva, H. Kan, D. Royé, A. Milojevic, A. Overcenco, A. Urban, A. Schneider, A. Entezari, AM....
Jazyk angličtina Země Nizozemsko
Typ dokumentu časopisecké články, metaanalýza, Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural, práce podpořená grantem
Grantová podpora
MR/R013349/1
Medical Research Council - United Kingdom
P30 ES019776
NIEHS NIH HHS - United States
- MeSH
- látky znečišťující vzduch * analýza MeSH
- pevné částice analýza MeSH
- požáry v divočině * MeSH
- vystavení vlivu životního prostředí MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- metaanalýza MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Austrálie MeSH
BACKGROUND: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. METHODS: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated. FINDINGS: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period. INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
Air Health Science Division Health Canada Ottawa ON Canada
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research University of Oulu Oulu Finland
Center for Global Health School of Public Health Nanjing Medical University Nanjing China
Centre for Statistical Methodology London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London UK
Council for Scientific and Industrial Research Pretoria South Africa
Department of Earth Sciences University of Torino Turin Italy
Department of Environmental Health Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge Porto Portugal
Department of Environmental Health National Institute of Public Health Cuernavaca Morelos Mexico
Department of Environmental Health School of Public Health Fudan University Shanghai China
Department of Environmental Health University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
Department of Epidemiology Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge Lisbon Portugal
Department of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health Service Rome Italy
Department of Geography Geoinformatics and Meteorology University of Pretoria Pretoria South Africa
Department of Global Health Policy Graduate School of Medicine The University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan
Department of Pathology Faculty of Medicine University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
Department of Physical Chemical and Natural Systems Universidad Pablo de Olavide Seville Spain
Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine Umeå University Umeå Sweden
Department of Public Health Universidad de los Andes Santiago Chile
Department of Quantitative Methods School of Medicine University of the Republic Montevideo Uruguay
Department of Statistics and Computational Research Universitat de València Valencia CIBERESP Spain
EPIUnit Instituto de Saúde Pública Universidade do Porto Porto Portugal
Estonian Environmental Research Centre Tallinn Estonia
Faculty of Environmental Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic
Faculty of Geography Babes Bolay University Cluj Napoca Romania
Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences University of Tsukuba Tsukuba Japan
Institute of Atmospheric Physics Czech Academy of Sciences Prague Czech Republic
Institute of Environment Health and Societies Brunel University London London UK
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research Barcelona Spain
Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health University of Tartu Tartu Estonia
Institute of Tropical Medicine Alexander von Humboldt Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia Lima Peru
National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health Chisinau Moldova
National Institute of Environmental Health Science National Health Research Institutes Zhunan Taiwan
Norwegian institute of Public Health Oslo Norway
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam Germany
School of Environment Yale University New Haven CT USA
School of Epidemiology and Public Health Faculty of Medicine University of Ottawa Ottawa ON Canada
School of Public Health and Social Work Queensland University of Technology Brisbane QLD Australia
School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health Nagasaki University Nagasaki Japan
Shanghai Children's Medical Center Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine Shanghai China
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Basel Switzerland
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute University of Basel Basel Switzerland
Technological University Dublin Dublin Ireland
The Colorado School of Public Health University of Colorado Aurora
Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management North West University South Africa
Citace poskytuje Crossref.org
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- $a Chen, Gongbo $u Guangdong Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center of Environmental and Health Risk Assessment, Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
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- $a Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations / $c G. Chen, Y. Guo, X. Yue, S. Tong, A. Gasparrini, ML. Bell, B. Armstrong, J. Schwartz, JJK. Jaakkola, A. Zanobetti, E. Lavigne, PH. Nascimento Saldiva, H. Kan, D. Royé, A. Milojevic, A. Overcenco, A. Urban, A. Schneider, A. Entezari, AM. Vicedo-Cabrera, A. Zeka, A. Tobias, B. Nunes, B. Alahmad, B. Forsberg, SC. Pan, C. Íñiguez, C. Ameling, C. De la Cruz Valencia, C. Åström, D. Houthuijs, D. Van Dung, E. Samoli, F. Mayvaneh, F. Sera, G. Carrasco-Escobar, Y. Lei, H. Orru, H. Kim, IH. Holobaca, J. Kyselý, JP. Teixeira, J. Madureira, K. Katsouyanni, M. Hurtado-Díaz, M. Maasikmets, MS. Ragettli, M. Hashizume, M. Stafoggia, M. Pascal, M. Scortichini, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, N. Valdés Ortega, NRI. Ryti, N. Scovronick, P. Matus, P. Goodman, RM. Garland, R. Abrutzky, SO. Garcia, S. Rao, S. Fratianni, TN. Dang, V. Colistro, V. Huber, W. Lee, X. Seposo, Y. Honda, YL. Guo, T. Ye, W. Yu, MJ. Abramson, JM. Samet, S. Li
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- $a BACKGROUND: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. METHODS: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated. FINDINGS: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period. INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
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