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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
Q. Zhao, Y. Guo, T. Ye, A. Gasparrini, S. Tong, A. Overcenco, A. Urban, A. Schneider, A. Entezari, AM. Vicedo-Cabrera, A. Zanobetti, A. Analitis, A. Zeka, A. Tobias, B. Nunes, B. Alahmad, B. Armstrong, B. Forsberg, SC. Pan, C. Íñiguez, C....
Jazyk angličtina Země Nizozemsko
Typ dokumentu časopisecké články, Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural, práce podpořená grantem
Grantová podpora
P30 ES019776
NIEHS NIH HHS - United States
MR/R013349/1
Medical Research Council - United Kingdom
NLK
Directory of Open Access Journals
od 2017
Elsevier Open Access Journals
od 2017-04-01
ROAD: Directory of Open Access Scholarly Resources
od 2017
- MeSH
- klimatické změny MeSH
- nízká teplota * MeSH
- teplota MeSH
- vysoká teplota * MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Austrálie MeSH
BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. METHODS: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. FINDINGS: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. INTERPRETATION: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
Air Health Science Division Health Canada Ottawa ON Canada
Center for Global Health Nanjing Medical University Nanjing China
Centre for Statistical Methodology London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London UK
CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health Madrid Spain
Department of Earth Sciences University of Turin Turin Italy
Department of Environmental Health Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge Porto Portugal
Department of Environmental Health National Institute of Public Health Cuernavaca Morelos Mexico
Department of Environmental Health School of Public Health Fudan University Shanghai China
Department of Environmental Health University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
Department of Epidemiology Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge Porto Portugal
Department of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health Service Rome Italy
Department of Geography University of Santiago de Compostela Santiago de Compostela Spain
Department of Global Health Policy Graduate School of Medicine The University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan
Department of Pathology Faculty of Medicine University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
Department of Physical Chemical and Natural Systems Universidad Pablo de Olavide Sevilla Spain
Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine Umeå University Umeå Sweden
Department of Public Health Universidad de los Andes Santiago Chile
Department of Quantitative Methods School of Medicine University of the Republic Montevideo Uruguay
Department of Statistics and Computational Research Universitat de València València Spain
Division of Infectious Diseases Department of Medicine University of California San Diego CA USA
EPIUnit Instituto de Saúde Pública Universidade do Porto Porto Portugal
Faculty of Environmental Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic
Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences Hakim Sabzevari University Sabzevar Iran
Faculty of Geography Babeş Bolyai University Cluj Napoca Romania
Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences University of Tsukuba Tsukuba Japan
Finnish Meteorological Institute Helsinki Finland
Graduate School of Public Health Seoul National University Seoul South Korea
Institute of Atmospheric Physics Czech Academy of Sciences Prague Czech Republic
Institute of Environment Health and Societies Brunel University London London UK
Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health University of Tartu Tartu Estonia
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine University of Bern Bern Switzerland
National Institute of Environmental Health Science National Health Research Institutes Zhunan Taiwan
Norwegian institute of Public Health Oslo Norway
Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research University of Bern Bern Switzerland
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam Germany
School of Epidemiology and Public Health Faculty of Medicine University of Ottawa Ottawa ON Canada
School of Physics Technological University Dublin Dublin Ireland
School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences King's College London London UK
School of Public Health and Social Work Queensland University of Technology Brisbane QLD Australia
School of the Environment Yale University New Haven CT USA
School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health Nagasaki University Nagasaki Japan
Shanghai Children's Medical Centre Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai China
Citace poskytuje Crossref.org
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- $a Zhao, Qi $u Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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- $a BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. METHODS: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. FINDINGS: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. INTERPRETATION: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
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- $a Tong, Shilu $u Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
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