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Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States
EY. Cramer, EL. Ray, VK. Lopez, J. Bracher, A. Brennen, AJ. Castro Rivadeneira, A. Gerding, T. Gneiting, KH. House, Y. Huang, D. Jayawardena, AH. Kanji, A. Khandelwal, K. Le, A. Mühlemann, J. Niemi, A. Shah, A. Stark, Y. Wang, N. Wattanachit, MW....
Language English Country United States
Document type Journal Article
Grant support
U01CK000538
ACL HHS - United States
R01 EB017205
NIBIB NIH HHS - United States
U01IP001137
ACL HHS - United States
R01 GM124104
NIGMS NIH HHS - United States
NU38OT000297
CDC HHS - United States
Wellcome Trust - United Kingdom
U01IP001122
ACL HHS - United States
R35 GM119582
NIGMS NIH HHS - United States
U01 CK000531
NCEZID CDC HHS - United States
210758/Z/18/Z
Wellcome Trust - United Kingdom
U01 IP001122
NCIRD CDC HHS - United States
U01CK000531
ACL HHS - United States
NLK
Free Medical Journals
from 1915 to 6 months ago
Freely Accessible Science Journals
from 1915 to 6 months ago
PubMed Central
from 1915 to 6 months ago
Europe PubMed Central
from 1915 to 6 months ago
Open Access Digital Library
from 1915-01-15
Open Access Digital Library
from 1915-01-01
- MeSH
- COVID-19 * mortality MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Pandemics MeSH
- Probability MeSH
- Forecasting MeSH
- Data Accuracy MeSH
- Public Health trends MeSH
- Check Tag
- Humans MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Geographicals
- United States MeSH
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.
Advanced Data Analytics Metron Inc Reston VA 20190
Catalog Data Science Walmart Inc Sunnyvale CA 94085
Chair of Econometrics and Statistics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology 76185 Karlsruhe Germany
College of Computing Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta GA 30308
College of Information and Computer Sciences University of Massachusetts Amherst MA 01003
Computational Statistics Group Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies 69118 Heidelberg Germany
Core Consultant Group Oliver Wyman New York NY 10036
COVID 19 Response Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Department of Biological Sciences University of Notre Dame Notre Dame IN 46556
Department of Biomedical Data Sciences Stanford University Stanford CA 94305
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology University of Massachusetts Amherst MA 01003
Department of Biostatistics Columbia University New York NY 10032
Department of Biostatistics University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Chapel Hill NC 27599
Department of Biostatistics University of Washington Seattle WA 98195
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Seattle WA 98195
Department of Civil and Systems Engineering Johns Hopkins University Baltimore MD 21218
Department of Complex Systems University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI 48109
Department of Computer Science and Engineering University of California San Diego CA 92093
Department of Computer Science University of California Los Angeles CA 90095
Department of Computer Science University of California Santa Barbara CA 93106
Department of Computer Science University of Iowa Iowa City IA 52242
Department of Computer Science Virginia Tech Falls Church VA 22043
Department of Ecology and Evolution University of Chicago Chicago IL 60637
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering The University of Texas at Austin Austin TX 78712
Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Syracuse University Syracuse NY 13207
Department of Environmental Health Sciences Columbia University New York NY 10032
Department of Epidemiology Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Baltimore MD 21215
Department of Finance Iowa State University Ames IA 50011
Department of Health Policy and Management Harvard University Cambridge MA 02138
Department of Integrative Biology University of Texas at Austin Austin TX 78712
Department of Materials Science and Engineering Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Troy NY 12309
Department of Mathematics and Statistics Dalhousie University Halifax NS B3H 4R2 Canada
Department of Mathematics and Statistics Masaryk University 61137 Brno Czech Republic
Department of Mathematics College of William and Mary Williamsburg VA 23187
Department of Mathematics University of Arizona Tucson AZ 85721
Department of Mathematics University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI 48109
Department of Physics and Astronomy University of Victoria Victoria BC V8W 2Y2 Canada
Department of Physics Trinity University San Antonio TX 78212
Department of Physics University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI 48109
Department of Psychiatry Columbia University New York NY 10032
Department of Statistics and Data Sciences University of Texas at Austin Austin TX 78712
Department of Statistics Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA 15213
Department of Statistics Iowa State University Ames IA 50011
Department of Statistics Stanford University Stanford CA 94305
Department of Statistics University of British Columbia Vancouver BC V6T 1Z4 Canada
Department of Statistics University of Virginia Charlottesville VA 22904
Department of Statistics University of Washington Seattle WA 98185
Division of Epidemiology Department of Internal Medicine University of Utah Salt Lake City UT 84108
Emerging Technologies IEM Inc Baton Rouge LA 70809
Emerging Technologies IEM Inc Bel Air MD 21015
Financial Services Oliver Wyman Digital Toronto ON Canada M5J 0A1
Financial Services Oliver Wyman London UK W1U 8EW
Financial Services Oliver Wyman New York NY 10036
Google Cloud Sunnyvale CA 94089
Halıcıoğlu Data Science Institute University of California San Diego CA 92093
Health and Life Sciences Oliver Wyman Boston MA 02110
Health and Life Sciences Oliver Wyman New York NY 10036
Health Economic Modeling Value Analytics Labs 34776 İstanbul Turkey
Infectious Disease Group Predictive Science Inc San Diego CA 92121
Information Systems and Modeling Group Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos NM 87545
Institute for Data Systems and Society Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA 02139
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA 98195
Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation Turin 10133 Italy
Institute of Stochastics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology 69118 Karlsruhe Germany
International Vaccine Access Center Johns Hopkins University Baltimore MD 21231
IQT Labs In Q Tel Waltham MA 02451
Jilin University Changchun City Jilin Province 130012 People's Republic of China
JMP Life Sciences SAS Institute Inc Cary NC 27513
Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Laurel MD 20723
Khoury College of Computer Sciences Northeastern University Boston MA 02115
Laboratory for Computational Physiology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA 02139
Machine Learning Department Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA 15213
Manhasset Secondary School Manhasset NY 11030
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA 02142
McCombs School of Business The University of Texas at Austin Austin TX 78712
Odum School of Ecology University of Georgia Athens GA 30602
Oliver Wyman Digital Oliver Wyman Boston MA 02110
Oliver Wyman Digital Oliver Wyman New York NY 10036
Oliver Wyman Digital Oliver Wyman Sao Paolo Brazil 04711 904
Operations Research Center Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Physical Sciences Division TRIUMF Vancouver BC V8W 2Y2 Canada
Quality Assurance and Data Science Signature Science LLC Austin TX 78759
Quality Assurance and Data Science Signature Science LLC Charlottesville VA 22911
Radiology Institute for Technology Assessment Massachusetts General Hospital Boston MA 02114
River Hill High School Clarksville MD 21029
Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe NM 87501
School for Engineering of Matter Transport and Energy Arizona State University Tempe AZ 85287
School of Engineering Brown University Providence RI 02912
School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Clemson University Clemson SC 29634
School of Medicine State University of New York Upstate Medical University Syracuse NY 13210
School of Public Health and Health Sciences University of Massachusetts Amherst MA 01003
School of Public Health Department of Epidemiology University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI 48109
Sloan School of Management Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA 02142
Statistical Sciences Group Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos NM 87545
Texas Advanced Computing Center Austin TX 78758
Unaffiliated Amsterdam The Netherlands
Unaffiliated Baltimore MD 21205
Unaffiliated New York NY 10016
Unaffiliated San Francisco CA 94122
University of Science and Technology of China Heifei Anhui 230027 People's Republic of China
University of Washington Seattle WA 98109
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center Concord MA 01742
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center Hanover NH 03755
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center Vicksburg MS 39180
Virtual Power System Inc Milpitas CA 95035
Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence Andheri East Mumbai 400093 India
Winship Cancer Institute Emory University Medical School Atlanta GA 30322
References provided by Crossref.org
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