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Age-period-cohort modelling of type 1 diabetes incidence rates among children included in the EURODIAB 25-year follow-up study
J. Svensson, EH. Ibfelt, B. Carstensen, A. Neu, O. Cinek, T. Skrivarhaug, B. Rami-Merhar, RG. Feltbower, C. Castell, D. Konrad, K. Gillespie, P. Jarosz-Chobot, D. Marčiulionytė, J. Rosenbauer, N. Bratina, C. Ionescu-Tirgoviste, F. Gorus, M....
Jazyk angličtina Země Německo
Typ dokumentu časopisecké články
- MeSH
- diabetes mellitus 1. typu * epidemiologie MeSH
- dítě MeSH
- incidence MeSH
- kojenec MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- následné studie MeSH
- novorozenec MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- registrace MeSH
- záchvaty MeSH
- Check Tag
- dítě MeSH
- kojenec MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- novorozenec MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
AIMS: Specific patterns in incidence may reveal environmental explanations for type 1 diabetes incidence. We aimed to study type 1 diabetes incidence in European childhood populations to assess whether an increase could be attributed to either period or cohort effects. METHODS: Nineteen EURODIAB centres provided single year incidence data for ages 0-14 in the 25-year period 1989-2013. Case counts and person years were classified by age, period and cohort (APC) in 1-year classes. APC Poisson regression models of rates were fitted using restricted cubic splines for age, period and cohort per centre and sex. Joint models were fitted for all centres and sexes, to find a parsimonious model. RESULTS: A total of 57,487 cases were included. In ten and seven of the 19 centres the APC models showed evidence of nonlinear cohort effects or period effects, respectively, in one or both sexes and indications of sex-specific age effects. Models showed a positive linear increase ranging from approximately 0.6 to 6.6%/year. Centres with low incidence rates showed the highest overall increase. A final joint model showed incidence peak at age 11.6 and 12.6 for girls and boys, respectively, and the rate-ratio was according to sex below 1 in ages 5-12. CONCLUSION: There was reasonable evidence for similar age-specific type 1 diabetes incidence rates across the EURODIAB population and peaks at a younger age for girls than boys. Cohort effects showed nonlinearity but varied between centres and the model did not contribute convincingly to identification of environmental causes of the increase.
Centre for Public Health Queen's University Belfast Belfast UK
Clinical Epidemiology Research Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen Herlev Denmark
Department of Children's Diabetology Medical University of Silesia Katowice Poland
Department of Clinical Medicine Copenhagen University Copenhagen Denmark
Department of Endocrinology and Genetics University Children's Hospital Skopje North Macedonia
Department of Health Government of Catalonia Barcelona Spain
Department of Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine Medical University of Vienna Vienna Austria
Diabetes and Metabolism Bristol Medical School University of Bristol Bristol UK
Diabetes Research Center Brussels Free University Vrije Universiteit Brussel Brussels Belgium
Institute of Endocrinology Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kaunas Lithuania
Institute of Microbiology and Virology Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kaunas Lithuania
Leeds Institute for Data Analytics School of Medicine University of Leeds Leeds UK
National Institute of Diabetes Nutrition and Metabolic Diseases NC Paulescu Bucharest Romania
Citace poskytuje Crossref.org
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