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Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986-2015
D. Yang, M. Hashizume, A. Tobías, Y. Honda, D. Roye, J. Oh, TN. Dang, Y. Kim, R. Abrutzky, Y. Guo, S. Tong, MSZS. Coelho, PHN. Saldiva, E. Lavigne, PM. Correa, NV. Ortega, S. Osorio, J. Kyselý, A. Urban, H. Orru, E. Indermitte, J. Jaakkola, N....
Status neindexováno Jazyk angličtina Země Spojené státy americké
Typ dokumentu časopisecké články
Grantová podpora
MR/R013349/1
Medical Research Council - United Kingdom
MR/V034162/1
Medical Research Council - United Kingdom
NLK
Directory of Open Access Journals
od 2018
PubMed Central
od 2019
ROAD: Directory of Open Access Scholarly Resources
od 2017
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
BACKGROUND: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. METHODS: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986-2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. RESULTS: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = -0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = -3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = -2.86, P = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.
Air Health Science Division Health Canada Ottawa Canada
Center for Global Health School of Public Health Nanjing Medical University Nanjing China
CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health Madrid Spain
Climate Research Foundation Madrid Spain
Climatology Research Group Institute of Landscape Ecology University of Münster Münster Germany
Department of Earth Sciences University of Torino Torino Italy
Department of Environmental Health Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge Porto Portugal
Department of Environmental Health National Institute of Public Health Cuernavaca Morelos Mexico
Department of Environmental Health Rollins School of Public Health Emory University Atlanta Georgia
Department of Environmental Health University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
Department of Epidemiology Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge Porto Portugal
Department of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health Service ASL Roma1 Rome Italy
Department of Global Health Policy Graduate School of Medicine The University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan
Department of Information and Statistics Chungnam National University Daejeon South Korea
Department of Pathology University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine São Paulo Brazil
Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine Umeå University Umeå Sweden
Department of Public Health Universidad de los Andes Santiago Chile
Department of Statistics and Computational Research Universitat de València València Spain
Department of Statistics Informatics Applications University of Florence Florence Italy
Environmental Research Group School of Public Health Imperial College London London UK
EPIUnit Instituto de Saude Publica Universidade do Porto Porto Portugal
Faculty of Environmental Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic
Faculty of Geography Babes Bolay University Cluj Napoca Romania
Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences University of Tsukuba Tsukuba Japan
Graduate School of Public Health Seoul National University Seoul South Korea
IBE Chair of Epidemiology LMU Munich Munich Germany
Institute of Advanced Studies University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
Institute of Atmospheric Physics Czech Academy of Sciences Prague Czech Republic
Institute of Environment Health and Societies Brunel University London London United Kingdom
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research Barcelona Spain
Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health University of Tartu Tartu Estonia
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine University of Bern Bern Switzerland
Laboratory for Integrative and Translational Research in Population Health Porto Portugal
Medical Research Center Oulu Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu Oulu Finland
National Institute of Environmental Health Science National Health Research Institutes Zhunan Taiwan
Norwegian Institute of Public Health Oslo Norway
Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research University of Bern Bern Switzerland
School of Biomedical Convergence Engineering Pusan National University Yangsan South Korea
School of Epidemiology and Public Health Faculty of Medicine University of Ottawa Ottawa Canada
School of Physics Technological University Dublin Dublin Ireland
School of Public Health and Social Work Queensland University of Technology Brisbane Australia
School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health Nagasaki University Nagasaki Japan
Spanish Consortium for Research on Epidemiology and Public Health Madrid Spain
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Allschwil Switzerland
Citace poskytuje Crossref.org
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- $a Yang, Daewon $u Department of Information and Statistics, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, South Korea
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- $a Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986-2015 / $c D. Yang, M. Hashizume, A. Tobías, Y. Honda, D. Roye, J. Oh, TN. Dang, Y. Kim, R. Abrutzky, Y. Guo, S. Tong, MSZS. Coelho, PHN. Saldiva, E. Lavigne, PM. Correa, NV. Ortega, S. Osorio, J. Kyselý, A. Urban, H. Orru, E. Indermitte, J. Jaakkola, N. Ryti, M. Pascal, V. Huber, A. Schneider, K. Katsouyanni, A. Analitis, A. Entezari, F. Mayvaneh, P. Goodman, A. Zeka, P. Michelozzi, F. de'Donato, B. Alahmad, MH. Diaz, C. la Cruz Valencia, A. Overcenco, D. Houthuijs, C. Ameling, S. Rao, B. Nunes, J. Madureira, IH. Holo-Bâc, N. Scovronick, F. Acquaotta, H. Kim, W. Lee, C. Íñiguez, B. Forsberg, AM. Vicedo-Cabrera, MS. Ragettli, YL. Guo, SC. Pan, S. Li, F. Sera, A. Zanobetti, J. Schwartz, B. Armstrong, A. Gasparrini, Y. Chung
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- $a BACKGROUND: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. METHODS: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986-2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. RESULTS: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = -0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = -3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = -2.86, P = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.
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