Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns.

Agroecology and Pollination Group Landscape Ecology and Plant Production Systems Brussels Belgium

Centre for Agri Environmental Research School of Agriculture Policy and Development University of Reading Reading UK

Chair of Ecology and Biogeography Nicolaus Copernicus University Toruń Poland

Department of Geography University of Namur Namur Belgium

Department of Zoology Faculty of Science Charles University Prague 2 Czech Republic

European Invertebrate Survey Naturalis Biodiversity Center Leiden The Netherlands

Finnish Museum of Natural History Zoology Unit University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland

Independent Researcher Elixhausen Austria

Institute of Environmental Sciences Leiden University Leiden The Netherlands

Laboratoire de Zoologie Research institute of Biosciences University of Mons Mons Belgium

Municipal Museum Mariánské Lázně Mariánské Lázně Czech Republic

National Biodiversity Data Centre Beechfield House Carriganore WIT West Campus County Waterford Ireland

Naturalis Biodiversity Center Leiden The Netherlands

Norwegian Institute for Nature Research NINA Trondheim Norway

Unit of Functional and Evolutionary Entomology Gembloux Agro Bio Tech University of Liège Gembloux Belgium

Citace poskytuje Crossref.org

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