Determination of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) variability is of enormous importance to society; however, changes in TC activity are poorly understood owing to discrepancies among various datasets and limited span of instrumental records. While the increasing intensity and frequency of TCs have been previously documented on a long-term scale using various proxy records, determination of their poleward migration has been based mostly on short-term instrumental data. Here we present a unique tree-ring-based approach for determination of long-term variability in TC activity via forest disturbance rates in northeast Asia (33-45°N). Our results indicate significant long-term changes in TC activity, with increased rates of disturbances in the northern latitudes over the past century. The disturbance frequency was stable over time in the southern latitudes, however. Our findings of increasing disturbance frequency in the areas formerly situated at the edge of TC activity provide evidence supporting the broad relevance of poleward migration of TCs. Our results significantly enhance our understanding of the effects of climate change on TCs and emphasize the need for determination of long-term variation of past TC activity to improve future TC projections.

Botanical Garden Institute of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Science 690024 Vladivostok Russia

Department of Biological Science College of Natural Sciences Andong National University Andong 760 749 Gyeongbuk South Korea

Department of Forest Ecology Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences 165 21 Praha 6 Czech Republic

Faculty of Science University of South Bohemia 370 05 Ceske Budejovice Czech Republic

Federal Scientific Center of the East Asia Terrestrial Biodiversity Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences 690022 Vladivostok Russia

Institute of Botany Czech Academy of Sciences 252 43 Pruhonice Czech Republic

Institute of Botany Czech Academy of Sciences 252 43 Pruhonice Czech Republic;

Research Unit Forest Dynamics Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL CH 8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland

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