Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated tree-ring stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ∼2000 and ∼1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ∼1675 to ∼1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during the mid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium-BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.

Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm University 106 91 Stockholm Sweden

Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis Department of Biosciences University of Oslo N 0316 Oslo Norway

Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China

Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ United Kingdom

College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China

Czech Globe Global Change Research Institute Czech Academy of Sciences 60300 Brno Czech Republic

Dendrosciences Group Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research CH 8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland

Département des Sciences Fondamentales Université du Québec à Chicoutimi Chicoutimi QC G7H 2B1 Canada

Department of Geography Faculty of Science Masaryk University 61137 Brno Czech Republic

Department of Geography Johannes Gutenberg University 55099 Mainz Germany

Department of Geography Justus Liebig University D 35390 Giessen Germany

Department of Geography University of Cambridge CB2 3EN Cambridge United Kingdom

Department of History Stockholm University 106 91 Stockholm Sweden

Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences 603 00 Brno Czech Republic

Institute of Geography Friedrich Alexander University Erlangen Nürnberg 91058 Erlangen Germany

Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification Northwest Institute of Eco Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou 730000 China

Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification Northwest Institute of Eco Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou 730000 China;

Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Botany South China Botanical Garden Chinese Academy of Sciences Guangzhou 510650 China

Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education School of Geography Science Nanjing Normal University Nanjing 210023 China

Laboratory of Tree Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson AZ 85721

Science and Innovation Department World Meteorological Organization CH 1211 Geneva Switzerland

State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology Chinese Academy of Sciences Nanjing 210008 China

Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study 752 38 Uppsala Sweden

Tree Ring Laboratory Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University Palisades NY 10964

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Reply to Weiss: Tree-ring stable oxygen isotopes suggest an increase in Asian monsoon rainfall at 4.2 ka BP