Understanding how weather conditions affect animal populations is essential to foresee population changes in times of global climate shifts. However, assessing year-round weather impacts on demographic parameters is hampered in migratory animals due to often unknown occurrence in space and time. We addressed this by coupling tracking and weather data to explain extensive variation in apparent survival across 19 years in a northern European population of little ringed plovers (Charadrius dubius). Over 90% (n = 21) of tracked individuals followed migration routes along the Indo-European flyway to south India. Building on capture-recapture histories of nearly 1400 individuals, we found that between-year variation in precipitation during post-breeding staging in northern South Asia explained 47% of variation in apparent adult survival. Overall, the intensity of the monsoon in South Asia explained 31-33% of variability in apparent survival. In contrast, weather conditions in breeding, final non-breeding and pre-breeding quarters appeared less important in this species. The integration of multi-source data seems essential for identifying key regions and periods limiting population growth, for forecasting future changes and targeting conservation efforts.

Czech Academy of Sciences Institute of Vertebrate Biology Květná 8 60365 Brno Czech Republic

Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Gothenburg Box 463 405 30 Göteborg Sweden

Department of Bird Migration Swiss Ornithological Institute Seerose 1 6204 Sempach Switzerland

Department of Ecology Charles University Viničná 7 12844 Prague Czech Republic

Ecology and Genetics Research Unit University of Oulu PO Box 3000 90014 Oulu Finland

Finnish Museum of Natural History University of Helsinki P O Box 17 00014 Helsinki Finland

Helsinki Finland

School of Forest Sciences University of Eastern Finland P O Box 111 80101 Joensuu Finland

Vietnam Finland International School Ton Duc Thang University 01 D1 Street District 7 Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam

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