Sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the United Nations 2030 Agenda call for action by all nations to promote economic prosperity while protecting the planet. Projection of future land-use change under SDG scenarios is a new attempt to scientifically achieve the SDGs. Herein, we proposed four scenario assumptions based on the SDGs, including the sustainable economy (ECO), sustainable grain (GRA), sustainable environment (ENV), and reference (REF) scenarios. We forecasted land-use change along the Silk Road (resolution: 300 m) and compared the impacts of urban expansion and forest conversion on terrestrial carbon pools. There were significant differences in future land use change and carbon stocks, under the four SDG scenarios, by 2030. In the ENV scenario, the trend of decreasing forest land was mitigated, and forest carbon stocks in China increased by approximately 0.60% compared to 2020. In the GRA scenario, the decreasing rate of cultivated land area has slowed down. Cultivated land area in South and Southeast Asia only shows an increasing trend in the GRA scenario, while it shows a decreasing trend in other SDG scenarios. The ECO scenario showed highest carbon losses associated with increased urban expansion. The study enhances our understanding of how SDGs can contribute to mitigate future environmental degradation via accurate simulations that can be applied on a global scale.

Department of Geography the University of Hong Kong Hong Kong 999077 China

Institute of High Performance Computing Agency for Science Technology and Research Singapore 138632 Singapore

International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals Beijing 100094 China; Aerospace Information Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100094 China

Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment Ministry of Education Nanjing Normal University Nanjing 210023 China; International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals Beijing 100094 China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application Nanjing 210023 China

Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment Ministry of Education Nanjing Normal University Nanjing 210023 China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application Nanjing 210023 China

Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment Ministry of Education Nanjing Normal University Nanjing 210023 China; The Key Laboratory of Urban Land Resources Monitoring and Simulation Ministry of Natural Resources Shenzhen 518034 China

Laboratory on Cartography University of Architecture Civil Engineering and Geodesy Sofia 1164 Bulgaria

Laboratory on Geoinformatics and Cartography Institute of Geography Masaryk University Brno 601 77 Czech Republic

School of Atmospheric Sciences Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory Sun Yat sen University Zhuhai 519082 China

School of Geography and Environment Jiangxi Normal University Nanchang 330022 China; Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry of Education Jiangxi Normal University Nanchang 330022 China

School of Geography and Environment Jiangxi Normal University Nanchang 330022 China; Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment Ministry of Education Nanjing Normal University Nanjing 210023 China

Sierra Nevada Research Institute University of California Merced CA 95348 USA

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