Process-based models and empirical modelling techniques are frequently used to (i) explore the sensitivity of tree growth to environmental variables, and (ii) predict the future growth of trees and forest stands under climate change scenarios. However, modelling approaches substantially influence predictions of the sensitivity of trees to environmental factors. Here, we used tree-ring width (TRW) data from 1630 beech trees from a network of 70 plots established across European mountains to build empirical predictive growth models using various modelling approaches. In addition, we used 3-PG and Biome-BGCMuSo process-based models to compare growth predictions with derived empirical models. Results revealed similar prediction errors (RMSE) across models ranging between 3.71 and 7.54 cm2 of basal area increment (BAI). The models explained most of the variability in BAI ranging from 54 % to 87 %. Selected explanatory variables (despite being statistically highly significant) and the pattern of the growth sensitivity differed between models substantially. We identified only five factors with the same effect and the same sensitivity pattern in all empirical models: tree DBH, competition index, elevation, Gini index of DBH, and soil silt content. However, the sensitivity to most of the climate variables was low and inconsistent among the empirical models. Both empirical and process-based models suggest that beech in European mountains will, on average, likely experience better growth conditions under both 4.5 and 8.5 RCP scenarios. The process-based models indicated that beech may grow better across European mountains by 1.05 to 1.4 times in warmer conditions. The empirical models identified several drivers of tree growth that are not included in the current process-based models (e.g., different nutrients) but may have a substantial effect on final results, particularly if they are limiting factors. Hence, future development of process-based models may build upon our findings to increase their ability to correctly capture ecosystem dynamics.

CSIRO Land and Water GPO Box 1700 ACT 2601 Australia

Department of Agricultural and Forest Sciences and Engineering JRU CTFC AGROTECNIO University of Lleida Spain

Department of Agricultural Environmental and Food Sciences University of Molise Italy

Department of Ecology and Silviculture Faculty of Forestry University of Agriculture Poland

Department of Forest Ecology Mendel University in Brno Zemědělská 3 Brno 6130 Czech Republic

Department of Forest Management and Urban greenery University Sarajevo Faculty of Forestry Bosnia and Herzegovina

Department of Silviculture Warsaw University of Life Sciences Poland

Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Czech Republic

Faculty of Science and Technology Free University of Bolzano Piazza Università 1 39100 Bolzano Italy

Forest Research Institute University of Sopron Sárvár Hungary

Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Bulgaria

Institute of Forestry Kneza Viseslava 3 11030 Belgrade Serbia

Institute of Landscape Ecology Slovak Academy of Sciences Štefánikova 3 P O BOX 254 Slovakia; Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Czech Republic

Institute of Lowland Forestry and Environment University of Novi Sad Novi Sad Serbia

Instituto de Ciencias Forestales CSIC Spain

iuFOR Instituto universitario de investigación en gestión forestal sostenible Universidad de Valladolid Spain

National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry Marin Drăcea Romania

Technical University in Zvolen T G Masaryka 24 96001 Zvolen Slovakia

Technical University in Zvolen T G Masaryka 24 96001 Zvolen Slovakia; Administration of Tatra National Park Tatranska Lomnica 05960 Vysoke Tatry Slovakia

Technical University in Zvolen T G Masaryka 24 96001 Zvolen Slovakia; Departamento de Sistemas y Recursos Naturales Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Montes Forestal y del Medio Natural Universidad Politécnica de Madrid Ciudad Universitaria s n 28040 Madrid Spain

Technical University in Zvolen T G Masaryka 24 96001 Zvolen Slovakia; National Forest Centre T G Masaryka 22 96001 Zvolen Slovakia

Technical University of Munich TUM School of Life Sciences Chair of Forest Growth and Yield Science Hans Carl von Carlowitz Platz 2 85354 Freising Germany

Ukrainian National Forestry University Gen Chuprynka str 103 Lviv 79057 Ukraine

University of Belgrade Faculty of Forestry Department for Forestry and Nature Protection Belgrade Serbia

University of Belgrade Institute of Chemistry Technology and Metallurgy Njegoseva 12 Belgrade Serbia

University of Ljubljana Biotechnical Faculty Department of Forestry and Renewable Forest Resources Jamnikarjeva 101 1000 Ljubljana Slovenia

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