Expecting the Unexpected: Entropy and Multifractal Systems in Finance
Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE Jazyk angličtina Země Švýcarsko Médium electronic
Typ dokumentu časopisecké články
PubMed
37998219
PubMed Central
PMC10670846
DOI
10.3390/e25111527
PII: e25111527
Knihovny.cz E-zdroje
- Klíčová slova
- determinism, entropy, financial time series, investments, multifractal analysis, risk management,
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Entropy serves as a measure of chaos in systems by representing the average rate of information loss about a phase point's position on the attractor. When dealing with a multifractal system, a single exponent cannot fully describe its dynamics, necessitating a continuous spectrum of exponents, known as the singularity spectrum. From an investor's point of view, a rise in entropy is a signal of abnormal and possibly negative returns. This means he has to expect the unexpected and prepare for it. To explore this, we analyse the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) U.S. Index as well as its constituents. Through this examination, we assess their multifractal characteristics and identify market conditions (bearish/bullish markets) using entropy, an effective method for recognizing fluctuating fractal markets. Our findings challenge conventional beliefs by demonstrating that price declines lead to increased entropy, contrary to some studies in the literature that suggest that reduced entropy in market crises implies more determinism. Instead, we propose that bear markets are likely to exhibit higher entropy, indicating a greater chance of unexpected extreme events. Moreover, our study reveals a power-law behaviour and indicates the absence of variance.
Department of Economics HSE University 3A Kantemirovskaya Ulitsa St Petersburg 190121 Russia
Department of Mathematics University of Bari Via Edoardo Orabona 4 70125 Bari Italy
Department of Mathematics University of Jaen Campus Las Lagunillas s n 23071 Jaén Spain
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