BACKGROUND: The study of invasive plant species distribution involves changes in their ranges and ecological niches under the projected global temperature increase until 2100. However, climate modeling of habitat suitability for Reynoutria japonica in Europe remains limited, hindering risk assessment and effective management of its spread. We used the MaxEnt model to assess the potential distribution of R. japonica in 14 European countries. RESULTS: It was found that the range of the taxon will expand into northern regions by 13.6% or 17.0%, depending on the scenario. However, range contraction in southern and central regions is expected to reach 26%. As a result, by 2100, a slight overall reduction in range (by 9-13%) is projected due to the decrease in distribution areas in southern parts of Europe, where maximum air temperatures will rise. Temperature variability throughout the year and precipitation during the warmest quarter are limiting factors for the spread. The minimum temperature of the growing season will influence distribution projections for 2060, whereas under current climate conditions, this parameter does not have a limiting effect. A general framework for controlling invasions of Reynoutria Houtt. taxa has been developed for both national and international levels. CONCLUSION: The study identified the dynamics of the invasive species' spread in Europe in relation to global climate change, assessed the risks of colonization in new areas, and provided tools for regulation and management to improve the prediction of potential distribution. © 2025 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Department of Food System Sciences Research Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL Frick Switzerland

Department of General Ecology and Ecotrophology Bila Tserkva National Agrarian University Bila Tserkva Kyiv region Ukraine

Department of Sustainable Technologies Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Prague Czechia

Institute for Evolutionary Ecology National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Kyiv Ukraine

Research Institute for Sustainability Helmholtz Centre Potsdam Potsdam Germany

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