Climate change is expected to increase the invasiveness of non-native aquarium fish, yet national assessments rarely consider future warming conditions. We screened 46 popular ornamental freshwater fish imported into Türkiye for invasion risk. Each species received a Basic Risk Assessment (BRA) score under current conditions and an adjusted Climate Change Assessment (CCA) score under regional warming scenarios. The BRA classified 12 species (26.1%) as high risk, while under the CCA, this rose to 16 species (34.8%). Four species, namely goldfish Carassius auratus, common carp Cyprinus carpio, vermiculated sailfin catfish Pterygoplichthys disjunctivus, and leopard pleco P. gibbiceps, reached very high-risk status. Climate change adjustment resulted in an increase in the basic scores for 34 species, a decrease for three, and no change for nine. Seven species achieved the maximum increment of + 12 under predicted climate change conditions. Our results show that marginal habitats, such as thermal springs and effluent canals, could become suitable for these species, even as water stress in Central Anatolia threatens both native and invasive species. We recommend dynamic, climate-aware risk protocols, combined with empirical validation via field and eDNA monitoring, and a precautionary 'whitelist' import system based on robust risk screening protocols as applied in this study.

Center for Applied Mathematics and Bioinformatics Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Gulf University for Science and Technology Hawally Kuwait

Department of Aquaculture Faculty of Fisheries Ege University Izmir Türkiye

Department of Aquaculture Faculty of Fisheries Izmir Katip Çelebi University Izmir Türkiye

Department of Basic Sciences Faculty of Fisheries Muğla Sıtkı Koçman University Muğla Türkiye

Department of Biology Faculty of Arts and Science Düzce University Düzce Türkiye

Department of Fisheries and Food Processing Technology Faculty of Fisheries Izmir Katip Çelebi University Izmir Türkiye

Department of Life and Environmental Sciences Faculty of Science and Technology Bournemouth University Poole Dorset UK

Department of Marine Inland Waters Sciences and Technology Faculty of Fisheries Ege University Izmir Türkiye

Department of River Ecology and Conservation Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Frankfurt Germany

Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection Department of Ecology and Vertebrate Zoology University of Lodz Lodz Poland

Faculty of Fisheries and Protection of Waters University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice South Bohemian Research Centre of Aquaculture and Biodiversity of Hydrocenoses Vodňany Czech Republic

Hydrobiology Section Department of Biology Faculty of Science Hacettepe University Ankara Türkiye

Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Department of Resource Management and Fisheries Structures General Directorate of Fisheries and Aquaculture Ankara Türkiye

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