The causes and rates of late patient-mortality following alloHCT for myelodysplastic syndromes or secondary acute myeloid leukemia were studied, to assess the contribution of relapse-related, treatment-related, and population factors. Data from EBMT on 6434 adults, who received a first alloHCT from January 2000 to December 2012, were retrospectively studied using combined land-marking, relative-survival methods and multi-state modeling techniques. Median age at alloHCT increased from 49 to 58 years, and the number of patients aged ≥65 years at alloHCT increased from 5 to 17%. Overall survival probability was 53% at 2 years and 35% at 10 years post-alloHCT. Survival probability at 5 years from the 2-year landmark was 88% for patients <45-year old and 63% for patients ≥65-year old at alloHCT. Cumulative incidence of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) for patients <45-year old at transplant was 7% rising to 25% for patients aged ≥65. For older patients, 31% of NRM-deaths could be attributed to population mortality. Favorable post-alloHCT long-term survival was seen; however, excess mortality-risk for all age groups was shown compared to the general population. A substantial part of total NRM for older patients was attributable to population mortality, information which aids the balanced explanation of post-HCT risk and helps improve long-term care.

• MeSH
• Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute mortality   MeSH
• Transplantation, Homologous mortality   MeSH
• Incidence MeSH
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Myelodysplastic Syndromes mortality   MeSH
• Disease-Free Survival MeSH
• Cause of Death MeSH
• Transplantation Conditioning mortality   MeSH
• Recurrence MeSH
• Retrospective Studies MeSH
• Neoplasms, Second Primary mortality   MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation mortality   MeSH
• Check Tag
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Male MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Female MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH

In myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs), the evolution of risk for disease progression or death has not been systematically investigated despite being crucial for correct interpretation of prognostic risk scores. In a multicenter retrospective study, we described changes in risk over time, the consequences for basal prognostic scores, and their potential clinical implications. Major MDS prognostic risk scoring systems and their constituent individual predictors were analyzed in 7212 primary untreated MDS patients from the International Working Group for Prognosis in MDS database. Changes in risk of mortality and of leukemic transformation over time from diagnosis were described. Hazards regarding mortality and acute myeloid leukemia transformation diminished over time from diagnosis in higher-risk MDS patients, whereas they remained stable in lower-risk patients. After approximately 3.5 years, hazards in the separate risk groups became similar and were essentially equivalent after 5 years. This fact led to loss of prognostic power of different scoring systems considered, which was more pronounced for survival. Inclusion of age resulted in increased initial prognostic power for survival and less attenuation in hazards. If needed for practicability in clinical management, the differing development of risks suggested a reasonable division into lower- and higher-risk MDS based on the IPSS-R at a cutoff of 3.5 points. Our data regarding time-dependent performance of prognostic scores reflect the disparate change of risks in MDS subpopulations. Lower-risk patients at diagnosis remain lower risk whereas initially high-risk patients demonstrate decreasing risk over time. This change of risk should be considered in clinical decision making.

• MeSH
• Time Factors MeSH
• Kaplan-Meier Estimate MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Myelodysplastic Syndromes mortality   MeSH
• Cell Transformation, Neoplastic pathology   MeSH
• Risk Factors MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• World Health Organization MeSH
• Check Tag
• Humans MeSH
• Male MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Female MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Multicenter Study MeSH
• Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH