Asparaginase-associated pancreatitis (AAP) frequently affects children treated for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) causing severe acute and persisting complications. Known risk factors such as asparaginase dosing, older age and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have insufficient odds ratios to allow personalized asparaginase therapy. In this study, we explored machine learning strategies for prediction of individual AAP risk. We integrated information on age, sex, and SNPs based on Illumina Omni2.5exome-8 arrays of patients with childhood ALL (N=1564, 244 with AAP 1.0 to 17.9 yo) from 10 international ALL consortia into machine learning models including regression, random forest, AdaBoost and artificial neural networks. A model with only age and sex had area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.62. Inclusion of 6 pancreatitis candidate gene SNPs or 4 validated pancreatitis SNPs boosted ROC-AUC somewhat (0.67) while 30 SNPs, identified through our AAP genome-wide association study cohort, boosted performance (0.80). Most predictive features included rs10273639 (PRSS1-PRSS2), rs10436957 (CTRC), rs13228878 (PRSS1/PRSS2), rs1505495 (GALNTL6), rs4655107 (EPHB2) and age (1 to 7 y). Second AAP following asparaginase re-exposure was predicted with ROC-AUC: 0.65. The machine learning models assist individual-level risk assessment of AAP for future prevention trials, and may legitimize asparaginase re-exposure when AAP risk is predicted to be low.

• MeSH
• Precursor Cell Lymphoblastic Leukemia-Lymphoma * drug therapy   genetics   MeSH
• Asparaginase * adverse effects   MeSH
• Genome-Wide Association Study MeSH
• Child MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Pancreatitis * chemically induced   genetics   MeSH
• Antineoplastic Agents * adverse effects   MeSH
• Machine Learning MeSH
• Check Tag
• Child MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Names of Substances
• Asparaginase * MeSH
• Antineoplastic Agents * MeSH

Asparaginase-associated pancreatitis is a life-threatening toxicity to childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia treatment. To elucidate genetic predisposition and asparaginase-associated pancreatitis pathogenesis, ten trial groups contributed remission samples from patients aged 1.0-17.9 years treated for acute lymphoblastic leukemia between 2000 and 2016. Cases (n=244) were defined by the presence of at least two of the following criteria: (i) abdominal pain; (ii) levels of pancreatic enzymes ≥3 × upper normal limit; and (iii) imaging compatible with pancreatitis. Controls (n=1320) completed intended asparaginase therapy, with 78% receiving ≥8 injections of pegylated-asparaginase, without developing asparaginase-associated pancreatitis. rs62228256 on 20q13.2 showed the strongest association with the development of asparaginase-associated pancreatitis (odds ratio=3.75; P=5.2×10-8). Moreover, rs13228878 (OR=0.61; P=7.1×10-6) and rs10273639 (OR=0.62; P=1.1×10-5) on 7q34 showed significant association with the risk of asparaginase-associated pancreatitis. A Dana Farber Cancer Institute ALL Consortium cohort consisting of patients treated on protocols between 1987 and 2004 (controls=285, cases=33), and the Children's Oncology Group AALL0232 cohort (controls=2653, cases=76) were available as replication cohorts for the 20q13.2 and 7q34 variants, respectively. While rs62228256 was not validated as a risk factor (P=0.77), both rs13228878 (P=0.03) and rs10273639 (P=0.04) were. rs13228878 and rs10273639 are in high linkage disequilibrium (r2=0.94) and associated with elevated expression of the PRSS1 gene, which encodes for trypsinogen, and are known risk variants for alcohol-associated and sporadic pancreatitis in adults. Intra-pancreatic trypsinogen cleavage to proteolytic trypsin induces autodigestion and pancreatitis. In conclusion, this study finds a shared genetic predisposition between asparaginase-associated pancreatitis and non-asparaginase-associated pancreatitis, and targeting the trypsinogen activation pathway may enable identification of effective interventions for asparaginase-associated pancreatitis.

• MeSH
• Precursor Cell Lymphoblastic Leukemia-Lymphoma complications   drug therapy   genetics   MeSH
• Alleles MeSH
• Asparaginase administration & dosage   adverse effects   MeSH
• Models, Biological MeSH
• Child MeSH
• Phenotype MeSH
• Genetic Predisposition to Disease MeSH
• Genetic Variation * MeSH
• Genetic Association Studies MeSH
• Genotype MeSH
• Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide MeSH
• Infant MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Adolescent MeSH
• Pancreatitis etiology   MeSH
• Polyethylene Glycols administration & dosage   adverse effects   MeSH
• Child, Preschool MeSH
• Antineoplastic Agents administration & dosage   adverse effects   MeSH
• Trypsin genetics   MeSH
• Trypsinogen genetics   MeSH
• Check Tag
• Child MeSH
• Infant MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Adolescent MeSH
• Male MeSH
• Child, Preschool MeSH
• Female MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
• Names of Substances
• Asparaginase MeSH
• pegaspargase MeSH Browser
• Polyethylene Glycols MeSH
• Antineoplastic Agents MeSH
• PRSS1 protein, human MeSH Browser
• PRSS2 protein, human MeSH Browser
• Trypsin MeSH
• Trypsinogen MeSH