Communicating the scientific consensus that human-caused climate change is real increases climate change beliefs, worry and support for public action in the United States. In this preregistered experiment, we tested two scientific consensus messages, a classic message on the reality of human-caused climate change and an updated message additionally emphasizing scientific agreement that climate change is a crisis. Across online convenience samples from 27 countries (n = 10,527), the classic message substantially reduces misperceptions (d = 0.47, 95% CI (0.41, 0.52)) and slightly increases climate change beliefs (from d = 0.06, 95% CI (0.01, 0.11) to d = 0.10, 95% CI (0.04, 0.15)) and worry (d = 0.05, 95% CI (-0.01, 0.10)) but not support for public action directly. The updated message is equally effective but provides no added value. Both messages are more effective for audiences with lower message familiarity and higher misperceptions, including those with lower trust in climate scientists and right-leaning ideologies. Overall, scientific consensus messaging is an effective, non-polarizing tool for changing misperceptions, beliefs and worry across different audiences.
- MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- důvěra MeSH
- klimatické změny * MeSH
- komunikace * MeSH
- konsensus * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- veřejné mínění MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
The influential claim that most published results are false raised concerns about the trustworthiness and integrity of science. Since then, there have been numerous attempts to examine the rate of false-positive results that have failed to settle this question empirically. Here we propose a new way to estimate the false positive risk and apply the method to the results of (randomized) clinical trials in top medical journals. Contrary to claims that most published results are false, we find that the traditional significance criterion of α = .05 produces a false positive risk of 13%. Adjusting α to.01 lowers the false positive risk to less than 5%. However, our method does provide clear evidence of publication bias that leads to inflated effect size estimates. These results provide a solid empirical foundation for evaluations of the trustworthiness of medical research.
- MeSH
- biomedicínský výzkum * MeSH
- insuflace * MeSH
- periodika jako téma * MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
BACKGROUND: We provide an overview of Bayesian estimation, hypothesis testing, and model-averaging and illustrate how they benefit parametric survival analysis. We contrast the Bayesian framework to the currently dominant frequentist approach and highlight advantages, such as seamless incorporation of historical data, continuous monitoring of evidence, and incorporating uncertainty about the true data generating process. METHODS: We illustrate the application of the outlined Bayesian approaches on an example data set, retrospective re-analyzing a colon cancer trial. We assess the performance of Bayesian parametric survival analysis and maximum likelihood survival models with AIC/BIC model selection in fixed-n and sequential designs with a simulation study. RESULTS: In the retrospective re-analysis of the example data set, the Bayesian framework provided evidence for the absence of a positive treatment effect of adding Cetuximab to FOLFOX6 regimen on disease-free survival in patients with resected stage III colon cancer. Furthermore, the Bayesian sequential analysis would have terminated the trial 10.3 months earlier than the standard frequentist analysis. In a simulation study with sequential designs, the Bayesian framework on average reached a decision in almost half the time required by the frequentist counterparts, while maintaining the same power, and an appropriate false-positive rate. Under model misspecification, the Bayesian framework resulted in higher false-negative rate compared to the frequentist counterparts, which resulted in a higher proportion of undecided trials. In fixed-n designs, the Bayesian framework showed slightly higher power, slightly elevated error rates, and lower bias and RMSE when estimating treatment effects in small samples. We found no noticeable differences for survival predictions. We have made the analytic approach readily available to other researchers in the RoBSA R package. CONCLUSIONS: The outlined Bayesian framework provides several benefits when applied to parametric survival analyses. It uses data more efficiently, is capable of considerably shortening the length of clinical trials, and provides a richer set of inferences.
The aim of this prospective longitudinal study was to examine the association between Cesarean section (CS) and child development and behavior. The sample consisted of 256 children who were born at term without serious perinatal pathologies. Their development and behavior was assessed at the age of four using Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ-3), Children's Behavior Questionnaire and Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire. Multivariate linear regression analyses were conducted to assess the association between CS and child outcomes. CS was associated with better scores in the Problem Solving domain of the ASQ in the whole sample. After stratifying by child sex, the positive association between CS and the Problem Solving domain was significant in boys, while no association was found in girls. Girls were rated less optimally in the Gross Motor domain of the ASQ when born via CS. Mode of birth was not associated with behavioral outcomes.
- MeSH
- císařský řez * MeSH
- dítě MeSH
- kohortové studie MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- longitudinální studie MeSH
- prospektivní studie MeSH
- těhotenství MeSH
- vývoj dítěte * MeSH
- Check Tag
- dítě MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- těhotenství MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
Background and Objective: Synthetic oxytocin (synOT) is a widely used drug to induce or accelerate labor and to prevent postpartum hemorrhage. Although some studies indicate there are associations between intrapartum synOT and impaired breastfeeding initiation or earlier cessation, the long-term effects of synOT on breastfeeding are largely understudied. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of synOT on breastfeeding status during the first 9 months postpartum. Materials and Methods: The women were recruited from five maternity hospitals during prenatal medical checkups or postpartum hospital stay. They reported their breastfeeding status on discharge from maternity hospital (mean 4.54 days postpartum) (N = 439), at 6 weeks (N = 439), and at 9 months postpartum (N = 274). The data related to synOT administration were extracted from the medical records. Results: In the analysis adjusted for maternal age, parity, educational level, marital status, child's sex, delivery mode, and labor analgesia/anesthesia, intrapartum administration of synOT predicted a lower probability of exclusive breastfeeding on discharge from maternity hospital (odds ratio = 0.37; p = 0.006), but we observed no effect on breastfeeding status at 6 weeks or 9 months postpartum. Conclusion: Our results suggest that adverse effects of synOT on breastfeeding do not persist beyond the first postpartum days.
- MeSH
- dítě MeSH
- kojení MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- oxytocin * škodlivé účinky MeSH
- poporodní období MeSH
- porodní děj * MeSH
- prospektivní studie MeSH
- těhotenství MeSH
- Check Tag
- dítě MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- těhotenství MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
OBJECTIVE: Cesarean section (CS) rates are rising rapidly around the world but no conclusive evidence has been obtained about the possible short- and long-term effects of CS on child behavior. We evaluated prospectively the association between CS and infant temperament across the first 9 postpartum months, controlling for indications for CS and investigating parity and infant sex as moderators. METHODS: The sample consisted of mothers and their healthy infants. Infant temperament was measured using the Infant Characteristics Questionnaire completed by the mothers at 6 weeks (n = 452) and 9 months (n = 258) postpartum. Mode of birth was classified into spontaneous vaginal birth (n = 347 for 6 weeks sample; 197 for 9 months sample), CS planned for medical reasons (n = 55; 28) and emergency CS (n = 50; 33). RESULTS: Multiple regression analysis revealed no main effects of birth mode, but showed a significant interaction between birth mode and parity indicating that emergency CS in firstborn infants was associated with more difficult temperament at 6 weeks. There were no significant associations between indications for CS and infant temperament, although breech presentation predicted difficult temperament at 9 months. CONCLUSION: We largely failed to support the association between CS and infant temperament. Although our results suggest that emergency CS may be associated with temperament in firstborns, further research is needed to replicate this finding, preferably using observational measures to assess child temperament.
- MeSH
- císařský řez statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- kojenec MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- longitudinální studie MeSH
- matky psychologie MeSH
- parita MeSH
- poloha plodu koncem pánevním epidemiologie MeSH
- poporodní období MeSH
- prospektivní studie MeSH
- regresní analýza MeSH
- těhotenství MeSH
- temperament * MeSH
- vývoj dítěte MeSH
- Check Tag
- kojenec MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- těhotenství MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
BACKGROUND: Pre- and post-partum depression is a common mood disorder with detrimental effects on both mother and child. The aim of the proposed review is to summarize evidence related to the effects of both pre- and post-partum depression on child behavior and development from birth to preschool age. In particular, our review will address mutual relations between pre- and post-partum depression in order to determine whether pre- and post-partum depression predict child psychological outcomes independently, whether there is an effect of timing of depression on child outcomes, whether pre- and post-partum depression interact to affect child outcomes, and whether the effect of pre-partum depression is mediated by depression after child's birth. METHODS: We will include prospective longitudinal studies that report data about the effects of both pre- and post-partum depression on child psychological outcomes as published in peer-reviewed academic journals since January 1998. We will search EMBASE, MEDLINE, PsycARTICLES, PsycINFO, ISI Web of Science, Scopus, and Wiley Online databases to identify original research articles written in English. Two independent reviewers will screen search results in two stages: (i) titles and abstracts and (ii) full text. The first one will extract data into tables, while the latter will verify whether the data extracted are correct. We will assess the risk of bias in the selected studies using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP), Cohort Study Checklist. The results of the review will be reported in a narrative form. If there are sufficient data available, a meta-analysis will be conducted using metaSEM package in R. DISCUSSION: The proposed review will be the first systematic review summarizing the effects of both pre- and post-partum depression on child psychological development and behavior from birth to preschool age. The results of such a review may contribute to a better understanding of mutual relations between pre- and post-partum depression in their effects on child outcomes. They may also shed light on what periods in early human development are most vulnerable to the effects of maternal depression. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018106269.
- MeSH
- chování dětí MeSH
- dítě MeSH
- kohortové studie MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- metaanalýza jako téma MeSH
- poporodní deprese * MeSH
- porod MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- prospektivní studie MeSH
- těhotenství MeSH
- Check Tag
- dítě MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- těhotenství MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
