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The Role of Humidity in Associations of High Temperature with Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicity Study
B. Armstrong, F. Sera, AM. Vicedo-Cabrera, R. Abrutzky, DO. Åström, ML. Bell, BY. Chen, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, PM. Correa, TN. Dang, MH. Diaz, DV. Dung, B. Forsberg, P. Goodman, YL. Guo, Y. Guo, M. Hashizume, Y. Honda, E....
Jazyk angličtina Země Spojené státy americké
Typ dokumentu časopisecké články, Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural, práce podpořená grantem
Grantová podpora
MR/M022625/1
Medical Research Council - United Kingdom
MR/R013349/1
Medical Research Council - United Kingdom
NLK
Directory of Open Access Journals
od 1972
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PubMed Central
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ROAD: Directory of Open Access Scholarly Resources
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PubMed
31553655
DOI
10.1289/ehp5430
Knihovny.cz E-zdroje
- MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mortalita trendy MeSH
- nelineární dynamika MeSH
- roční období MeSH
- velkoměsta MeSH
- vlhkost * MeSH
- vysoká teplota * MeSH
- vystavení vlivu životního prostředí statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- velkoměsta MeSH
BACKGROUND: There is strong experimental evidence that physiologic stress from high temperatures is greater if humidity is higher. However, heat indices developed to allow for this have not consistently predicted mortality better than dry-bulb temperature. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to clarify the potential contribution of humidity an addition to temperature in predicting daily mortality in summer by using a large multicountry dataset. METHODS: In 445 cities in 24 countries, we fit a time-series regression model for summer mortality with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for temperature (up to lag 3) and supplemented this with a range of terms for relative humidity (RH) and its interaction with temperature. City-specific associations were summarized using meta-analytic techniques. RESULTS: Adding a linear term for RH to the temperature term improved fit slightly, with an increase of 23% in RH (the 99th percentile anomaly) associated with a 1.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8, 1.3] decrease in mortality. Allowing curvature in the RH term or adding terms for interaction of RH with temperature did not improve the model fit. The humidity-related decreased risk was made up of a positive coefficient at lag 0 outweighed by negative coefficients at lags of 1-3 d. Key results were broadly robust to small model changes and replacing RH with absolute measures of humidity. Replacing temperature with apparent temperature, a metric combining humidity and temperature, reduced goodness of fit slightly. DISCUSSION: The absence of a positive association of humidity with mortality in summer in this large multinational study is counter to expectations from physiologic studies, though consistent with previous epidemiologic studies finding little evidence for improved prediction by heat indices. The result that there was a small negative average association of humidity with mortality should be interpreted cautiously; the lag structure has unclear interpretation and suggests the need for future work to clarify. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5430.
Air Health Science Division Health Canada Ottawa Canada
Department of Environmental Health Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health Boston Massachusetts USA
Department of Environmental Health National Institute of Public Health Cuernavaca Morelos Mexico
Department of Environmental Health School of Public Health Fudan University Shanghai China
Department of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health Service Rome Italy
Department of Family Medicine and Public Health University of Tartu Tartu Estonia
Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine Umeå University Sweden
Department of Public Health Universidad de los Andes Santiago Chile
Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences University of Tsukuba Tsukuba Japan
Graduate School of Public Health Seoul National University Seoul Republic of Korea
Institute for the Environment Brunel University London London UK
Institute of Advanced Studies University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
Institute of Atmospheric Physics Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic Prague Czech Republic
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research Barcelona Spain
National Institute of Environmental Health Science National Health Research Institutes Zhunan Taiwan
School of Forestry and Environmental Studies Yale University New Haven Connecticut USA
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Basel Switzerland University of Basel Basel Switzerland
Citace poskytuje Crossref.org
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