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Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas
M. Trnka, S. Feng, MA. Semenov, JE. Olesen, KC. Kersebaum, RP. Rötter, D. Semerádová, K. Klem, W. Huang, M. Ruiz-Ramos, P. Hlavinka, J. Meitner, J. Balek, P. Havlík, U. Büntgen,
Jazyk angličtina Země Spojené státy americké
Typ dokumentu časopisecké články, práce podpořená grantem
NLK
Directory of Open Access Journals
od 2015
Freely Accessible Science Journals
od 2015
PubMed Central
od 2015
Europe PubMed Central
od 2015
Open Access Digital Library
od 2015-01-01
Open Access Digital Library
od 2015-01-01
PubMed
31579815
DOI
10.1126/sciadv.aau2406
Knihovny.cz E-zdroje
- MeSH
- globální oteplování MeSH
- klimatické změny * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- pšenice * MeSH
- roční období MeSH
- teoretické modely * MeSH
- voda * MeSH
- zásobování potravinami MeSH
- zemědělské plodiny * MeSH
- zeměpis MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world's entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near-simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.
CEIGRAM Universidad Politécnica de Madrid ETSIAAB 28040 Madrid Spain
Department of Geosciences University of Arkansas Fayetteville AR USA
Global Change Research Institute CAS Bělidla 986 4b Brno 603 00 Czech Republic
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1 A 2361 Laxenburg Austria
Plant Sciences Department Rothamsted Research Harpenden Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ UK
Citace poskytuje Crossref.org
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- $a Trnka, Miroslav $u Global Change Research Institute CAS, Bělidla 986/4b, Brno 603 00, Czech Republic. Mendel University in Brno, Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Zemědělská 1, Brno 613 00, Czech Republic.
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- $a Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world's entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near-simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.
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