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The Sclerosing Cholangitis Outcomes in Pediatrics (SCOPE) Index: A Prognostic Tool for Children

MR. Deneau, C. Mack, ER. Perito, A. Ricciuto, PL. Valentino, M. Amin, AZ. Amir, M. Aumar, M. Auth, A. Broderick, M. DiGuglielmo, LG. Draijer, ED. Tavares Fagundes, W. El-Matary, F. Ferrari, KN. Furuya, N. Gupta, JT. Hochberg, M. Homan, S....

. 2021 ; 73 (3) : 1074-1087. [pub] 20201219

Language English Country United States

Document type Journal Article, Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Grant support
UL1TR002538 NCATS NIH HHS - United States
UL1 RR025764 NCRR NIH HHS - United States
KL2 TR001065 NCATS NIH HHS - United States
UL1 TR000105 NCATS NIH HHS - United States

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Disease progression in children with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is variable. Prognostic and risk-stratification tools exist for adult-onset PSC, but not for children. We aimed to create a tool that accounts for the biochemical and phenotypic features and early disease stage of pediatric PSC. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We used retrospective data from the Pediatric PSC Consortium. The training cohort contained 1,012 patients from 40 centers. We generated a multivariate risk index (Sclerosing Cholangitis Outcomes in Pediatrics [SCOPE] index) that contained total bilirubin, albumin, platelet count, gamma glutamyltransferase, and cholangiography to predict a primary outcome of liver transplantation or death (TD) and a broader secondary outcome that included portal hypertensive, biliary, and cancer complications termed hepatobiliary complications (HBCs). The model stratified patients as low, medium, or high risk based on progression to TD at rates of <1%, 3%, and 9% annually and to HBCs at rates of 2%, 6%, and 13% annually, respectively (P < 0.001). C-statistics to discriminate outcomes at 1 and 5 years were 0.95 and 0.82 for TD and 0.80 and 0.76 for HBCs, respectively. Baseline hepatic fibrosis stage was worse with increasing risk score, with extensive fibrosis in 8% of the lowest versus 100% with the highest risk index (P < 0.001). The model was validated in 240 children from 11 additional centers and performed well. CONCLUSIONS: The SCOPE index is a pediatric-specific prognostic tool for PSC. It uses routinely obtained, objective data to predict a complicated clinical course. It correlates strongly with biopsy-proven liver fibrosis. SCOPE can be used with families for shared decision making on clinical care based on a patient's individual risk, and to account for variable disease progression when designing future clinical trials.

1st Department of Pediatrics University of Athens Children's Hospital Agia Sofia Athens Greece

Alder Hey Children's Hospital Liverpool United Kingdom

Amsterdam University Medical Center Amsterdam The Netherlands

Boston Children's Hospital and Harvard Medical School Boston MA

Children's Health Ireland at Crumlin and University College Dublin Dublin Ireland

Children's Hospital at Montefiore Albert Einstein College of Medicine Bronx NY

Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Philadelphia PA

Children's National Medical Center Washington DC

Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center Cincinnati OH

Columbia University New York NY

Emory University School of Medicine Atlanta GA

Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences UJK Kielce Kielce Poland

Federal University of Minas Gerais Belo Horizonte Brazil

Indiana University Indianapolis IN

Johns Hopkins University Baltimore MD

London Health Sciences Center Western University London Ontario Canada

Lurie Children's Hospital Chicago IL

Massachusetts General Hospital Harvard Medical School Boston MA

Medical College of Wisconsin Milwaukee WI

Memorial University St John's Newfoundland Canada

Nemours Alfred 1 duPont Hospital for Children Wilmington DE

Northwest Pediatric Gastroenterology LLC Portland OR

Oklahoma University Oklahoma City OK

Palacky University Olomouc Czech Republic

Phoenix Children's Hospital Phoenix AZ

Sapienza University of Rome Rome Italy

Shaare Zedek Medical Center Jerusalem Israel

Teikyo University School of Medicine Tokyo Japan

The Dana Dwek Children's Hospital The Tel Aviv Medical Center Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv Israel

University of California San Diego San Diego CA

University of California San Francisco San Francisco CA

University of Colorado School of Medicine Aurora CO

University of Helsinki Hospital and Tampere University Helsinki Finland

University of Lille CHU Lille Lille France

University of Ljubljana Ljubljana Slovenia

University of Manitoba Winnipeg Manitoba Canada

University of Miami Miami FL

University of Naples Federico 2 Naples Italy

University of Rochester Medical Center Rochester NY

University of Southern California Los Angeles CA

University of Toronto Toronto Ontario Canada

University of Ulsan Seoul South Korea

University of Utah and Intermountain Primary Children's Hospital Salt Lake City UT

University of Washington Seattle WA

University of Wisconsin Madison School of Medicine and Public Health Madison WI

Yale University School of Medicine New Haven CT

References provided by Crossref.org

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$a Shteyer, Eyal $u Shaare Zedek Medical Center, Jerusalem, Israel
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