Identifying when hominins first produced Lomekwian, Oldowan, and Acheulean technologies is vital to multiple avenues of human origins research. Yet, like most archaeological endeavors, our understanding is currently only as accurate as the artifacts recovered and the sites identified. Here we use optimal linear estimation (OLE) modelling to identify the portion of the archaeological record not yet discovered, and statistically infer the date of origin of the earliest flaked stone technologies. These models provide the most accurate framework yet for understanding when hominins first produced these tool types. Our results estimate the Oldowan to have originated 2.617 to 2.644 Ma, 36,000 to 63,000 years earlier than current evidence. The Acheulean's origin is pushed back further through OLE, by at least 55,000 years to 1.815 to 1.823 Ma. We were unable to infer the Lomekwian's date of origin using OLE, but an upper bound of 5.1 million years can be inferred using alternative nonparametric techniques. These dates provide a new chronological foundation from which to understand the emergence of the first flaked stone technologies, alongside their behavioral and evolutionary implications. Moreover, they suggest there to be substantial portions of the artifact record yet to be discovered.

Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences Institute of Hydrobiology České Budějovice Czech Republic

Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology School of Anthropology and Conservation University of Kent Canterbury Kent CT2 7NR UK

School of Anthropology and Conservation University of Kent Canterbury Kent CT2 7NR UK

University of South Bohemia Faculty of Science Department of Ecosystem Biology České Budějovice Czech Republic

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