The seemingly random and unpredictable nature of seizures is a major debilitating factor for people with epilepsy. An increasing body of evidence demonstrates that the epileptic brain exhibits long-term fluctuations in seizure susceptibility, and seizure emergence seems to be a consequence of processes operating over multiple temporal scales. A deeper insight into the mechanisms responsible for long-term seizure fluctuations may provide important information for understanding the complex nature of seizure genesis. In this study, we explored the long-term dynamics of seizures in the tetanus toxin model of temporal lobe epilepsy. The results demonstrate the existence of long-term fluctuations in seizure probability, where seizures form clusters in time and are then followed by seizure-free periods. Within each cluster, seizure distribution is non-Poissonian, as demonstrated by the progressively increasing inter-seizure interval (ISI), which marks the approaching cluster termination. The lengthening of ISIs is paralleled by: increasing behavioral seizure severity, the occurrence of convulsive seizures, recruitment of extra-hippocampal structures and the spread of electrographic epileptiform activity outside of the limbic system. The results suggest that repeated non-convulsive seizures obey the 'seizures-beget-seizures' principle, leading to the occurrence of convulsive seizures, which decrease the probability of a subsequent seizure and, thus, increase the following ISI. The cumulative effect of repeated convulsive seizures leads to cluster termination, followed by a long inter-cluster period. We propose that seizures themselves are an endogenous factor that contributes to long-term fluctuations in seizure susceptibility and their mutual interaction determines the future evolution of disease activity.

Department of Circuit Theory Faculty of Electrical Engineering Czech Technical University Prague Prague Czech Republic

Department of Developmental Epileptology Institute of Physiology of the Czech Academy of Sciences Prague Czech Republic

Department of Nonlinear Modelling Institute of Computer Science of the Czech Academy of Sciences Prague 182 07 Czech Republic

Department of Physiology 2nd Faculty of Medicine Charles University Prague Czech Republic

National Institute of Mental Health Klecany Czech Republic

Seer Medical Melbourne Australia

The Graeme Clark Institute and Department of Medicine St Vincent's Hospital The University of Melbourne Melbourne Australia

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