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A longitudinal analysis of conspiracy beliefs and Covid-19 health responses

JW. van Prooijen, DM. Amodio, A. Boot, A. Eerland, T. Etienne, APM. Krouwel, M. Onderco, P. Verkoeijen, RA. Zwaan

. 2023 ; 53 (12) : 5709-5716. [pub] 20220926

Language English Country England, Great Britain

Document type Journal Article, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

BACKGROUND: Little is known about how conspiracy beliefs and health responses are interrelated over time during the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. This longitudinal study tested two contrasting, but not mutually exclusive, hypotheses through cross-lagged modeling. First, based on the consequential nature of conspiracy beliefs, we hypothesize that conspiracy beliefs predict an increase in detrimental health responses over time. Second, as people may rationalize their behavior through conspiracy beliefs, we hypothesize that detrimental health responses predict increased conspiracy beliefs over time. METHODS: We measured conspiracy beliefs and several health-related responses (i.e. physical distancing, support for lockdown policy, and the perception of the coronavirus as dangerous) at three phases of the pandemic in the Netherlands (N = 4913): During the first lockdown (Wave 1: April 2020), after the first lockdown (Wave 2: June 2020), and during the second lockdown (Wave 3: December 2020). RESULTS: For physical distancing and perceived danger, the overall cross-lagged effects supported both hypotheses, although the standardized effects were larger for the effects of conspiracy beliefs on these health responses than vice versa. The within-person change results only supported an effect of conspiracy beliefs on these health responses, depending on the phase of the pandemic. Furthermore, an overall cross-lagged effect of conspiracy beliefs on reduced support for lockdown policy emerged from Wave 2 to 3. CONCLUSIONS: The results provide stronger support for the hypothesis that conspiracy beliefs predict health responses over time than for the hypothesis that health responses predict conspiracy beliefs over time.

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$a van Prooijen, Jan-Willem $u Department of Experimental and Applied Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands $u The Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR), Amsterdam, the Netherlands $u Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands $1 https://orcid.org/0000000162360819 $7 vse20211131502
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$a BACKGROUND: Little is known about how conspiracy beliefs and health responses are interrelated over time during the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. This longitudinal study tested two contrasting, but not mutually exclusive, hypotheses through cross-lagged modeling. First, based on the consequential nature of conspiracy beliefs, we hypothesize that conspiracy beliefs predict an increase in detrimental health responses over time. Second, as people may rationalize their behavior through conspiracy beliefs, we hypothesize that detrimental health responses predict increased conspiracy beliefs over time. METHODS: We measured conspiracy beliefs and several health-related responses (i.e. physical distancing, support for lockdown policy, and the perception of the coronavirus as dangerous) at three phases of the pandemic in the Netherlands (N = 4913): During the first lockdown (Wave 1: April 2020), after the first lockdown (Wave 2: June 2020), and during the second lockdown (Wave 3: December 2020). RESULTS: For physical distancing and perceived danger, the overall cross-lagged effects supported both hypotheses, although the standardized effects were larger for the effects of conspiracy beliefs on these health responses than vice versa. The within-person change results only supported an effect of conspiracy beliefs on these health responses, depending on the phase of the pandemic. Furthermore, an overall cross-lagged effect of conspiracy beliefs on reduced support for lockdown policy emerged from Wave 2 to 3. CONCLUSIONS: The results provide stronger support for the hypothesis that conspiracy beliefs predict health responses over time than for the hypothesis that health responses predict conspiracy beliefs over time.
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$a Amodio, David M $u Department of Psychology, New York University, New York, NY, USA $u Department of Social Psychology, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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$a Boot, Arnout $u Department of Psychology, Education, and Child Studies, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
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$a Eerland, Anita $u Department of Communication Science, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
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$a Etienne, Tom $u Kieskompas, Amsterdam, the Netherlands $u Department of Political Science & Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
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$a Krouwel, André P M $u Departments of Political Science and Communication Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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$a Onderco, Michal $u Department of Public Administration and Sociology, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands $u Peace Research Center Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czechia
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$a Verkoeijen, Peter $u Department of Psychology, Education, and Child Studies, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands $u Brain and Learning Research Group, Learning and Innovation Center, Avans University of Applied Sciences, Breda, the Netherlands
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$a Zwaan, Rolf A $u Department of Psychology, Education, and Child Studies, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
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