Studies on trends in infant mortality and its constituent elements of early neonatal, late neonatal and postneonatal death, in developed and developing countries, point to ways of making further progress towards the target of infant mortality rates not exceeding 50/1000 live births in all countries by the year 2000.

Studies or trends in infant mortality and its constituent elements of early neonatal, late neonatal, and postneonatal death in developing and developed countries point to ways of making more progress to the target of infant mortality rates (IMRs) not exceeding 50/1000 live births in all countries by the year 2000. Decreases in the mean IMRs slowed down over the period 1937-84 in 4 country groups which averages 153, 102, 66, and 43/1000, respectively. The group which had the highest IMR at the outset, had the fastest reduction. A significant decrease in IMRs has been going on in many 3rd world countries during the latter 1/2 of the 20th century. Projected IMRs in developing countries, based on results achieved in developed countries suggests that the 50/1000 live birth target by the year 2000 can only be reached in countries which has an IMR in 1985 lower than 80/1000, since they can only be expected to achieve a decrease of 30/1000 in the 15-year interval. Data from European countries for 1979-82 were analyzed to see if decreases in early, late, and postneonatal mortality followed the same pattern as total infant mortality. The grouped data for late neonatal and postneonatal deaths were compared with the data for early neonatal deaths. In the countries with the lowest IMRs reduced from averages of 8.8 to 7.5 between 1979 and 1984, the ratio of early neonatal deaths to late neonatal deaths, plus postneonatal deaths was 4:3; late neonatal deaths decreased more rapidly early neonatal deaths during the same period. In the countries with decreases in the IMRs ranging from 20 to 91/1000, there was a quicker fall in early neonatal than in late neonatal plus postneonatal death rates. Data from Czechoslovakia for 1951-84 were analyzed to see if changing the scope of the curve of early neonatal mortality against late neonatal mortality plus postneonatal mortality, attained from many countries during a short period, reflected changes in 1 country over a long period. From 1967 to 1984, the total IMR fell from 24 to 15/1000. From 1951 to 1977, when total IMR went down from 77 to 24/1000, the main decrease was in late neonatal plus postneonatal mortality (from 49 to 10/1000); the neonatal death rate only went down from 28 to 14/1000. The changing relationship between early neonatal versus late neonatal plus postneonatal mortality has probably been much alike in all countries.

Research Institute for Mother and Child Care UPMD Prague Czech