Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth
Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE Jazyk angličtina Země Švýcarsko Médium electronic-ecollection
Typ dokumentu časopisecké články
PubMed
30713543
PubMed Central
PMC6346433
DOI
10.3389/fpls.2018.01964
Knihovny.cz E-zdroje
- Klíčová slova
- biotic agents, drought, forest, growth, resilience indicators, ring-width, tree mortality, variance,
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last ∼20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.
BC3 Basque Centre for Climate Change Leioa Spain
Biotechnical Faculty University of Ljubljana Ljubljana Slovenia
CNRS IRD EPHE ISEM Université de Montpellier Montpellier France
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas CCT Patagonia Norte Río Negro Argentina
CREAF Cerdanyola del Vallès Catalonia Spain
Departamento de Ciencias Agroforestales EiFAB iuFOR University of Valladolid Soria Spain
Department of Agricultural Science Mediterranean University of Reggio Calabria Reggio Calabria Italy
Department of Biogeochemical Processes Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry Jena Germany
Department of Biology University of Minnesota Morris Morris MN United States
Department of Biology University of Victoria Victoria BC Canada
Department of Botany Faculty of Science and Technology University of Debrecen Debrecen Hungary
Department of Botany University of Innsbruck Innsbruck Austria
Department of Ecology Universidad Nacional del Comahue Río Negro Argentina
Department of Entomology University of Arkansas Fayetteville AR United States
Department of Forest Sciences Transilvania University of Brasov Brașov Romania
Department of Forest Sciences University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
Department of Forestry and Wildland Resources Humboldt State University Arcata CA United States
Department of Geography University of Colorado Boulder CO United States
Department of Physical Chemical and Natural Systems Pablo de Olavide University Seville Spain
Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences Weizmann Institute of Science Rehovot Israel
Department of Research Conservation and Collections Desert Botanical Garden Phoenix AZ United States
Department of Yield and Silviculture Slovenian Forestry Institute Ljubljana Slovenia
Dipartimento di Bioscienze Università degli Studi di Milano Milan Italy
Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique Avignon France
Ecology and Biodiversity Vrije Universiteit Brussel Brussels Belgium
Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czechia
Grupo Ecología Forestal CONICET INTA EEA Bariloche Bariloche Argentina
Institute of Forest Botany and Forest Zoology TU Dresden Dresden Germany
Institute of Lowland Forestry and Environment University of Novi Sad Novi Sad Serbia
Institute of Systematic Botany and Ecology Ulm University Ulm Germany
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología Zaragoza Spain
Laboratory of Wood Biology and Xylarium Royal Museum for Central Africa Tervuren Belgium
National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry Marin Dracea Voluntari Romania
Natural Resources Institute Finland Espoo Finland
Northern Forestry Centre Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Edmonton AB Canada
Siberian Federal University Krasnoyarsk Russia
Sukachev Institute of Forest Siberian Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences Krasnoyarsk Russia
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland
USDA Forest Service Forest Health Protection Saint Paul MN United States
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