Forest carbon use efficiency (CUE, the ratio of net to gross primary productivity) represents the fraction of photosynthesis that is not used for plant respiration. Although important, it is often neglected in climate change impact analyses. Here we assess the potential impact of thinning on projected carbon cycle dynamics and implications for forest CUE and its components (i.e., gross and net primary productivity and plant respiration), as well as on forest biomass production. Using a detailed process-based forest ecosystem model forced by climate outputs of five Earth System Models under four representative climate scenarios, we investigate the sensitivity of the projected future changes in the autotrophic carbon budget of three representative European forests. We focus on changes in CUE and carbon stocks as a result of warming, rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, and forest thinning. Results show that autotrophic carbon sequestration decreases with forest development, and the decrease is faster with warming and in unthinned forests. This suggests that the combined impacts of climate change and changing CO2 concentrations lead the forests to grow faster, mature earlier, and also die younger. In addition, we show that under future climate conditions, forest thinning could mitigate the decrease in CUE, increase carbon allocation into more recalcitrant woody pools, and reduce physiological-climate-induced mortality risks. Altogether, our results show that thinning can improve the efficacy of forest-based mitigation strategies and should be carefully considered within a portfolio of mitigation options.

Centre of Excellence PLECO Department of Biology University of Antwerp Antwerp Belgium

Climate Simulation and Prediction Division Foundation Euro Mediterranean Center on Climate Change Bologna Italy

College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK

Department Environmental Engineering Technical University of Denmark Lyngby Denmark

Department for Innovation in Biological Agro food and Forest Systems University of Tuscia Viterbo Italy

Department of Bioscience Engineering University of Antwerp Antwerp Belgium

Department of Environmental Science Policy and Management University of California Berkeley CA USA

Department of Matter and Energy Fluxes Global Change Research Institute CAS Brno Czech Republic

Directorate for Sustainable Resources European Commission Joint Research Centre Ispra Italy

Earth Sciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA

Impacts on Agriculture Forests and Ecosystem Services Division Foundation Euro Mediterranean Center on Climate Change Viterbo Italy

Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Karlsruhe Germany

Max Plank Institute for Biogeochemistry Jena Germany

National Research Council of Italy Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean Rende Italy

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland College Park College Park MD USA

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam Germany

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Tackling unresolved questions in forest ecology: The past and future role of simulation models

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