The sudden interruption of recurring larch budmoth (LBM; Zeiraphera diniana or griseana Gn.) outbreaks across the European Alps after 1982 was surprising, because populations had regularly oscillated every 8-9 years for the past 1200 years or more. Although ecophysiological evidence was limited and underlying processes remained uncertain, climate change has been indicated as a possible driver of this disruption. An unexpected, recent return of LBM population peaks in 2017 and 2018 provides insight into this insect's climate sensitivity. Here, we combine meteorological and dendrochronological data to explore the influence of temperature variation and atmospheric circulation on cyclic LBM outbreaks since the early 1950s. Anomalous cold European winters, associated with a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, coincide with four consecutive epidemics between 1953 and 1982, and any of three warming-induced mechanisms could explain the system's failure thereafter: (1) high egg mortality, (2) asynchrony between egg hatch and foliage growth, and (3) upward shifts of outbreak epicentres. In demonstrating that LBM populations continued to oscillate every 8-9 years at sub-outbreak levels, this study emphasizes the relevance of winter temperatures on trophic interactions between insects and their host trees, as well as the importance of separating natural from anthropogenic climate forcing on population behaviour.

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Forestry and Wood Sciences 165 21 Prague Czech Republic

Department of Geography Johannes Gutenberg University 55099 Mainz Germany

Department of Geography University of Cambridge Cambridge CB2 3EN UK

Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences Department of Geography Faculty of Science Masaryk University 613 00 Brno Czech Republic

INRA UR633 Unité de Recherche de Zoologie Forestière Orléans 45075 France

Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL 8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland

USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station Morgantown WV 26505 USA

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