Forest models are instrumental for understanding and projecting the impact of climate change on forests. A considerable number of forest models have been developed in the last decades. However, few systematic and comprehensive model comparisons have been performed in Europe that combine an evaluation of modelled carbon and water fluxes and forest structure. We evaluate 13 widely used, state-of-the-art, stand-scale forest models against field measurements of forest structure and eddy-covariance data of carbon and water fluxes over multiple decades across an environmental gradient at nine typical European forest stands. We test the models' performance in three dimensions: accuracy of local predictions (agreement of modelled and observed annual data), realism of environmental responses (agreement of modelled and observed responses of daily gross primary productivity to temperature, radiation and vapour pressure deficit) and general applicability (proportion of European tree species covered). We find that multiple models are available that excel according to our three dimensions of model performance. For the accuracy of local predictions, variables related to forest structure have lower random and systematic errors than annual carbon and water flux variables. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble mean provided overall more realistic daily productivity responses to environmental drivers across all sites than any single individual model. The general applicability of the models is high, as almost all models are currently able to cover Europe's common tree species. We show that forest models complement each other in their response to environmental drivers and that there are several cases in which individual models outperform the model ensemble. Our framework provides a first step to capturing essential differences between forest models that go beyond the most commonly used accuracy of predictions. Overall, this study provides a point of reference for future model work aimed at predicting climate impacts and supporting climate mitigation and adaptation measures in forests.

CREAF Cerdanyola del Vallès Spain

Department of Biodiversity of Ecosystems and Landscape Institute of Landscape Ecology Slovak Academy of Sciences Nitra Slovakia

Department of Environmental Engineering Technical University of Denmark Lyngby Denmark

Department of Environmental Systems Science Forest Ecology Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems ETH Zurich Zurich Switzerland

Department of Forest Ecology Mendel University in Brno Brno Czech Republic

Department of Forest Sciences Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research and Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland

Department of Innovation in Biological Agro Food and Forest Systems University of Tuscia Viterbo Italy

Division Impacts on Agriculture Forests and Ecosystem Services Fondazione Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici Viterbo Italy

Ecology Section Department of Evolutionary Biology Ecology and Environmental Sciences University of Barcelona Barcelona Spain

Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Praha Czech Republic

Faculty of Forestry Technical University in Zvolen Zvolen Slovak Republic

Forest Dynamics Unit Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland

Forest Growth and Woody Biomass Production TU Dresden Tharandt Germany

Forest Growth and Yield Science TU München Freising Germany

Forest Modelling Lab National Research Council of Italy Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean Perugia Italy

Forestry Economics and Forest Planning University of Freiburg Freiburg Germany

Global Change Research Institute CAS Brno Czech Republic

Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Leipzig Germany

Institute of Forestry and Conservation John Daniels Faculty of Architecture Landscape and Design University of Toronto Toronto Ontario Canada

Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Atmospheric Environmental Research Garmisch Partenkirchen Germany

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg Austria

LESSEM INRAE Univ Grenoble Alpes St Martin d'Hères France

Natural Resources Institute Finland Helsinki Finland

Northwest German Forest Research Institute Göttingen Germany

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Leibniz Association Potsdam Germany

Remote Sensing Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland

Theoretical Ecology University of Regensburg Regensburg Germany

UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Penicuik Midlothian UK

UMR RECOVER INRAE Aix Marseille University Aix en Provence France

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