Orthotrichum pulchellum is a species of epiphytic moss in which a significant expansion from the oceanic part of Europe to the east of the continent has been observed in the recent two decades. The improvement in air quality in Central and Eastern Europe, but also climate change, probably plays a role in this. This study shows what direction of its spreading we can expect in the future. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a widespread method to find out species niches in environmental and geographical space, which allows us to highlight areas that have a higher probability of occurrences of the studied species, based on identifying similar environmental conditions to those already known. We also made predictions for different future scenarios (CMIP5 climatology datasets for the years 2041-2060). Because we were not able to distinguish between historical and newly settled areas, and so, had to use some of the traditional approaches when modeling invasive species, we proposed to use niche clusters based on environmental layers to split the data of all known occurrences and make models separately for each cluster. This approach seems reasonable from the ecological species point of view because using all the morphologically same samples could be misleading. Altogether, 2712 samples were used from three separate niche clusters. For building the models, the Maxent algorithm was used as a well-tested, well-accepted, and commonly used method.

Bohemian Switzerland National Park Administration Pražská 52 CZ 407 46 Krásná Lípa Czech Republic

Department of Biology and Ecology University of Ostrava Chittussiho 10 CZ 710 00 Ostrava Czech Republic

Institut für Botanik Technische Universität Dresden D 01062 Dresden Germany

Institute of Biology University of Opole Oleska 48 PL 45 052 Opole Poland

Silesian Museum Nádražní okruh 31 CZ 746 01 Opava Czech Republic

Stanisław Staszic High School in Rzepin Wojska Polskiego 30 PL 69 110 Rzepin Poland

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