Pathogen life history theory assumes a positive relationship between pathogen load in host tissues and pathogen transmission. Empirical evidence for this relationship is surprisingly rare due to the difficulty of measuring transmission for many pathogens. The comparative method, where a common host is experimentally infected with a set of pathogen strains, is a powerful approach for investigating the relationships between pathogen load and transmission. The validity of such experimental estimates of strain-specific transmission is greatly enhanced if they can predict the pathogen population strain structure in nature. Borrelia burgdorferi is a multi-strain, tick-borne spirochete that causes Lyme disease in North America. This study used 11 field-collected strains of B. burgdorferi, a rodent host (Mus musculus, C3H/HeJ) and its tick vector (Ixodes scapularis) to determine the relationship between pathogen load in host tissues and lifetime host-to-tick transmission (HTT). Mice were experimentally infected via tick bite with 1 of 11 strains. Lifetime HTT was measured by infesting mice with I. scapularis larval ticks on 3 separate occasions. The prevalence and abundance of the strains in the mouse tissues and the ticks were determined by qPCR. We used published databases to obtain estimates of the frequencies of these strains in wild I. scapularis tick populations. Spirochete loads in ticks and lifetime HTT varied significantly among the 11 strains of B. burgdorferi. Strains with higher spirochete loads in the host tissues were more likely to infect feeding larval ticks, which molted into nymphal ticks that had a higher probability of B. burgdorferi infection (i.e., higher HTT). Our laboratory-based estimates of lifetime HTT were predictive of the frequencies of these strains in wild I. scapularis populations. For B. burgdorferi, the strains that establish high abundance in host tissues and that have high lifetime transmission are the strains that are most common in nature.

Biology Centre Institute of Parasitology Czech Academy of Sciences České Budějovice Czech Republic

Centre de recherche en santé publique Université de Montréal Montreal QC Canada

Department of Biology University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia Pennsylvania USA

Department of Biology University of Regina Regina Saskatchewan Canada

Department of Veterinary Microbiology Western College of Veterinary Medicine University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon Saskatchewan Canada

Faculty of Science University of South Bohemia České Budějovice Czech Republic

Groupe de recherche en épidémiologie des zoonoses et santé publique Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire Université de Montréal Montreal Canada

Institute for Microbial Systems and Society Faculty of Science University of Regina Regina Saskatchewan Canada

Public Health Risk Sciences National Microbiology Laboratory Public Health Agency of Canada St Hyacinthe Quebec Canada

Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon Saskatchewan Canada

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