The Budyko water balance is a fundamental concept in hydrology that links aridity to how precipitation is divided between evapotranspiration and streamflow. While the model is powerful, its ability to explain temporal changes and the influence of human activities and climate change is limited. Here we introduce a causal discovery algorithm to explore deviations from the Budyko water balance, attributing them to human interventions such as agricultural activities and snow dynamics. Our analysis of 1342 catchments across the U.S. and Great Britain reveals distinct patterns: in the U.S., snow fraction and irrigation alter the Budyko water balance predominantly through changes in aridity-streamflow relationships, while in Great Britain, deviations are primarily driven by changes in precipitation-streamflow relationships, notable in catchments with high cropland percentage. By integrating causal analysis with the Budyko water balance, we enhance understanding of how human activities and climate dynamics affect water balance, offering insights for water management and sustainability in the Anthropocene.

Department of Civil Engineering Schulich School of Engineering University of Calgary Calgary AB Canada

Department of Hydraulics and Sanitation São Carlos School of Engineering University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil

Faculty of Environmental Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic

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