Global excess deaths associated with heatwaves in 2023 and the contribution of human-induced climate change
Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE Jazyk angličtina Země Spojené státy americké Médium print
Typ dokumentu časopisecké články
Grantová podpora
MR/V034162/1
Medical Research Council - United Kingdom
PubMed
41084606
PubMed Central
PMC7618246
DOI
10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101110
PII: S2666-6758(25)00313-3
Knihovny.cz E-zdroje
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
An unprecedented heatwave swept the globe in 2023, marking it one of the hottest years on record and raising concerns about its health impacts. However, a comprehensive assessment of the heatwave-related mortality and its attribution to human-induced climate change remains lacking. We aim to address this gap by analyzing high-resolution climate and mortality data from 2,013 locations across 67 countries/territories using a three-stage modeling approach. First, we estimated historical heatwave-mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression model with distributed lag structures, considering lag effects, seasonality, and within-week variations. Second, we pooled the estimates in meta-regression, accounting for spatial heterogeneity and potential changes in heatwave-mortality associations over time. Third, we predicted grid-specific (0.5 0.5) association in 2023 and calculated the heatwave-related excess deaths, death ratio, and death rate per million people. Attribution analysis was conducted by comparing heatwave-related mortality under factual and counterfactual climate scenarios. We estimated 178,486 excess deaths (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI], 159,892≥204,147) related to the 2023 heatwave, accounting for 0.73% of global deaths, corresponding to 23 deaths per million people. The highest mortality rates occurred in Southern (120, 95% eCI, 116≥126), Eastern (107, 95% eCI, 100≥114), and Western Europe (66, 95% eCI, 62≥70), where the excess death ratio was also higher. Notably, 54.29% (95% eCI, 45.71%≥61.36%) of the global heatwave-related deaths were attributable to human-induced climate change. These results underscore the urgent need for adaptive public health interventions and climate mitigation strategies to reduce future mortality burdens in the context of increasing global warming.
Biological Mision of Galicia Spain
Climate Research Foundation Madrid Spain
Department of Economics Ca' Foscari University of Venice Venice Italy
Department of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health Service Rome Italy
Department of Pathology Faculty of Medicine University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
Department of Primary Care and Population Health University of Nicosia Medical School Nicosia Cyprus
Department of Public Health University of Otago Wellington New Zealand
Department of Statistics and Computational Research Universitat de València València Spain
Doñana Biological Station Sevilla Spain
Faculty of Environmental Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic
Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences Prague Czech Republic
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research Barcelona Spain
RIVM National Institute for Public Health and the Environment Bilthoven Utrecht the Netherlands
School of Public Health and Social Work Queensland University of Technology Brisbane QLD Australia
School of the Environment Yale University New Haven CT USA
School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health Nagasaki University Japan
Spanish Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health Madrid Spain
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Allschwill Switzerland
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