Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world's entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near-simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.

• MeSH
• Global Warming MeSH
• Climate Change * MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Triticum * MeSH
• Seasons MeSH
• Models, Theoretical * MeSH
• Water * MeSH
• Food Supply MeSH
• Crops, Agricultural * MeSH
• Geography MeSH
• Check Tag
• Humans MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change on the ranges of crop pest species in Europe. The organisms included in the study were species from the family Tortricidae (Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana) and the family Pyralidae (Ostrinia nubilalis), Chrysomelidae beetles (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Oulema melanopus) and species from the family Aphididae (Ropalosiphum padi, Sitobion avenae). Climate conditions in the year 2055 were simulated using a subset of five representative global circulation models. Model simulations using these climate change scenarios showed significant shifts in the climatic niches of the species in this study. RESULTS: For Central Europe, the models predicted a shift in the ranges of pest species to higher altitudes and increases in the number of generations (NG) of the pests. In contrast, in the southern regions of Europe, the NG is likely to decrease owing to insufficient humidity. The ranges of species are likely to shift to the north. CONCLUSION: Based on the ensemble-scenario mean for 2055, a climate-driven northward shift of between 3° N (O. nubilalis) and 11° N (L. botrana) is expected. The areas that are most sensitive to experiencing a significant increase in climate suitability for future pest persistence were identified. These areas include Central Europe, the higher altitudes of the Alps and Carpathians and areas above 55° N.

• MeSH
• Coleoptera physiology   MeSH
• Species Specificity MeSH
• Climate Change * MeSH
• Aphids physiology   MeSH
• Moths physiology   MeSH
• Models, Theoretical * MeSH
• Geography MeSH
• Environment MeSH
• Animals MeSH
• Check Tag
• Animals MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
• Geographicals
• Europe MeSH