An ongoing, continually spreading, outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), following its identification in Georgia in 2007, has resulted in 17 European and 12 Asian countries reporting cases by April 2020, with cases occurring in both wild boar and domestic pigs. Curtailing further spread of ASF requires understanding of the transmission pathways of the disease. ASF is self-sustaining in the wild boar population, and they have been implicated as one of the main drivers of transmission within Europe. We developed a spatially explicit model to estimate the risk of infection with ASF in wild boar and pigs due to natural movement of wild boar that is applicable across the whole of Europe. We demonstrate the model by using it to predict the probability that early cases of ASF in Poland were caused by wild boar dispersion. The risk of infection in 2015 is computed due to wild boar cases in Poland in 2014, compared against reported cases in 2015, and then the procedure is repeated for 2015-2016. We find that long- and medium-distance spread of ASF (i.e. >30 km) is unlikely to have occurred due to wild boar dispersal, due in part to the generally short distances wild boar will travel (<20 km on average). We also predict the relative success of different control strategies in 2015, if they were implemented in 2014. Results suggest that hunting of wild boar reduces the number of new cases, but a larger region is at risk of ASF compared with no control measure. Alternatively, introducing wild boar-proof fencing reduces the size of the region at risk in 2015, but not the total number of cases. Overall, our model suggests wild boar movement is only responsible for local transmission of disease; thus, other pathways are more dominant in medium- and long-distance spread of the disease.
- MeSH
- africký mor prasat epidemiologie prevence a kontrola přenos MeSH
- chování zvířat MeSH
- divoká zvířata * MeSH
- epidemický výskyt choroby veterinární MeSH
- prasata MeSH
- pravděpodobnost MeSH
- Sus scrofa * MeSH
- virus afrického moru prasat MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Asie MeSH
- Evropa MeSH
Since the introduction in Georgia in 2007 of an African swine fever (ASF) genotype 2 virus strain, the virus has rapidly spread to both Western European and Asian countries. It now constitutes a major threat for the global swine industry. The ongoing European transmission cycle has been related to the 'wild boar habitat' with closed transmission events between wild boar populations and incidental spillovers to commercial and non-commercial (backyard) pig holdings. During the epidemic in Belgium, only wild boar were infected and although the introduction route has not yet been elucidated, the 'human factor' is highly suspected. While ASF was successfully contained in a small region in the Southern part of Belgium without affecting domestic pigs, the risk of spillover at the wild/domestic interface remains poorly assessed. In this study, we used a semi-quantitative method, involving national and international experts, to assess the risk associated with different transmission routes for ASF introduction from wild boar to domestic pig holdings and subsequent dissemination between holdings in the Belgian epidemiological context. Qualitative responses obtained by our questionnaire were numerically transformed and statistically processed to provide a semi-quantitative assessment of the occurrence of the hazard and a ranking of all transmission routes. 'Farmer', 'bedding material', 'veterinarian' and 'professionals from the pig sector' were considered as the most important transmission routes for ASF introduction from the wild reservoir to pig holdings. 'Animal movements', 'farmer', 'veterinarian', 'iatrogenic', 'animal transport truck' and 'animal care equipment' were considered as the most important transmission routes posing a risk of ASF spread between pig holdings. Combined with specific biosecurity checks in the holdings, this assessment helps in prioritizing risk mitigation measures against ASF introduction and further spread in the domestic pig industry, particularly while the ASF situation in Western Europe is worsening.
- MeSH
- africký mor prasat * epidemiologie MeSH
- epidemický výskyt choroby veterinární MeSH
- hodnocení rizik MeSH
- nemoci prasat * MeSH
- prasata MeSH
- Sus scrofa MeSH
- virus afrického moru prasat * MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Belgie MeSH
The spatial spread of infectious disease is determined by spatial and social processes such as animal space use and family group structure. Yet, the impacts of social processes on spatial spread remain poorly understood and estimates of spatial transmission kernels (STKs) often exclude social structure. Understanding the impacts of social structure on STKs is important for obtaining robust inferences for policy decisions and optimizing response plans. We fit spatially explicit transmission models with different assumptions about contact structure to African swine fever virus surveillance data from eastern Poland from 2014 to 2015 and evaluated how social structure affected inference of STKs and spatial spread. The model with social structure provided better inference of spatial spread, predicted that approximately 80% of transmission events occurred within family groups, and that transmission was weakly female-biased (other models predicted weakly male-biased transmission). In all models, most transmission events were within 1.5 km, with some rare events at longer distances. Effective reproductive numbers were between 1.1 and 2.5 (maximum values between 4 and 8). Social structure can modify spatial transmission dynamics. Accounting for this additional contact heterogeneity in spatial transmission models could provide more robust inferences of STKs for policy decisions, identify best control targets and improve transparency in model uncertainty.
- MeSH
- africký mor prasat * epidemiologie MeSH
- nejistota MeSH
- prasata MeSH
- Sus scrofa MeSH
- virus afrického moru prasat * MeSH
- základní reprodukční číslo MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. MeSH
Host abundance and landscape structure often interact to shape spatial patterns of many wildlife diseases. Emergence, spread, and persistence of African swine fever (ASF) among wild boar in eastern Europe has raised questions on the factors underlying ASF dynamics in this novel host-pathogen system. This work identifies drivers of ASF occurrence in natural wild boar population. We evaluated factors shaping the probability of ASF-postitive wild boar during the first three years (2014-2016) of the ASF epidemic in Poland. We expected to observe positive effects of wild boar density, proportion of forested area, human activity, and proximity to previous infections on ASF case probability. We tested these predictions using the infection status of 830 wild boar samples and generalized mixed-effects models. The probability of ASF case increased from 3 to 20% as population density rose from 0.4 to 2 ind./km2. The positive effect of population density on ASF case probability was stronger at locations near previous ASF incidents. ASF was more likely to occur in forested areas, with the probability of detecting an ASF positive sample rising from 2 to 11% as forest cover around the sample increased from 0.5 to 100%. This pattern was consistent at both low and high wild boar densities. Indicators of human activity were poor predictors of ASF occurrence. Disease control efforts, such as culling and carcass search, should be focused on high-density populations where chances of detecting and eliminating ASF-positive wild boar are higher. The intensity of control measures should decrease with distance from the infected area to match the observed spatial pattern of ASF case probability. Woodlands represent areas of the highest risk of ASF case occurrence. Distribution and connectivity of suitable habitats over the landscape can be used to prioritize disease-management actions.
- MeSH
- africký mor prasat epidemiologie MeSH
- biologické modely MeSH
- divoká zvířata MeSH
- epidemie veterinární MeSH
- interakce hostitele a patogenu * MeSH
- prasata MeSH
- pravděpodobnost MeSH
- prostorová analýza MeSH
- Sus scrofa MeSH
- virus afrického moru prasat fyziologie MeSH
- životní prostředí MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Polsko MeSH
African swine fever virus (ASFV) causes hemorrhagic fever in domestic pigs, presenting the biggest global threat to animal farming in recorded history. Despite the importance of ASFV, little is known about the mechanisms and regulation of ASFV transcription. Using RNA sequencing methods, we have determined total RNA abundance, transcription start sites, and transcription termination sites at single-nucleotide resolution. This allowed us to characterize DNA consensus motifs of early and late ASFV core promoters, as well as a polythymidylate sequence determinant for transcription termination. Our results demonstrate that ASFV utilizes alternative transcription start sites between early and late stages of infection and that ASFV RNA polymerase (RNAP) undergoes promoter-proximal transcript slippage at 5' ends of transcription units, adding quasitemplated AU- and AUAU-5' extensions to mRNAs. Here, we present the first much-needed genome-wide transcriptome study that provides unique insight into ASFV transcription and serves as a resource to aid future functional analyses of ASFV genes which are essential to combat this devastating disease.IMPORTANCE African swine fever virus (ASFV) causes incurable and often lethal hemorrhagic fever in domestic pigs. In 2020, ASF presents an acute and global animal health emergency that has the potential to devastate entire national economies as effective vaccines or antiviral drugs are not currently available (according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). With major outbreaks ongoing in Eastern Europe and Asia, urgent action is needed to advance our knowledge about the fundamental biology of ASFV, including the mechanisms and temporal control of gene expression. A thorough understanding of RNAP and transcription factor function, and of the sequence context of their promoter motifs, as well as accurate knowledge of which genes are expressed when and the amino acid sequence of the encoded proteins, is direly needed for the development of antiviral drugs and vaccines.
- MeSH
- africký mor prasat prevence a kontrola MeSH
- aktivace transkripce genetika MeSH
- genetická transkripce genetika MeSH
- genom virový MeSH
- hemoragické horečky virové virologie MeSH
- prasata virologie MeSH
- sekvence aminokyselin MeSH
- Sus scrofa virologie MeSH
- terminace genetické transkripce MeSH
- transkriptom genetika MeSH
- virové proteiny genetika MeSH
- virus afrického moru prasat genetika MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal, infectious disease affecting wild boars and domestic pigs, mostly resulting in their deaths. Previous studies showed that carcasses of infected wild boars pose a serious threat for ASF virus transmission and leaving of dead bodies in the environment enables persistence of the disease in the given affected area. Therefore, the prompt finding and removal of the carcasses is crucial for effective ASF control. This study reveals habitat preferences of ASF-positive wild boars for their deathbeds, which could greatly improve the effectivity in the search for infected carcasses. The vast majority (71%) of carcasses were found in forests (although forests occupy only 26.6% of the high-risk area - Zlin region, Czech Republic), especially in young forest stands; 91.3% of infected wild boar carcasses, which were found in forests, were in stands of up to 40 years of age, where infected individuals search for calm and quiet places. The preference of younger forest stands is significantly higher for infected individuals (p < 0.001). On meadows, infected individuals preferred a higher herb layer (p = 0.002) compared to non-infected individuals. A higher preference of places more distant from roads and forest edges was observed for the infected individuals as well (p < 0.001 in both cases). No differences in deathbed habitat preference were observed between selected sex-age categories. The distance between carcasses and water source was observed to be dependent on current mean temperature. Carcasses were found closer to the water sources at higher mean temperature. Because of the comparable character of the landscape, presented models are applicable across Central Europe and have the potential to greatly facilitate the search for infected carcasses.
- MeSH
- africký mor prasat mortalita MeSH
- časoprostorová analýza MeSH
- divoká zvířata psychologie MeSH
- prasata MeSH
- smrt * MeSH
- Sus scrofa psychologie MeSH
- virus afrického moru prasat fyziologie MeSH
- výběrové chování * MeSH
- životní prostředí * MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
For the monitoring of wild boar interactions with conspecific carcasses, seven wild boar carcasses were placed in different sites in the Czech Republic during winter season. Data were collected by camera traps. In total, 732 visits were recorded of wild boars at the carcass sites. Direct contact with the carcass was detected in 81% of the records. Cannibalism was observed in 9.8% of all recorded visits. The first direct contact was observed on average 30 days after the carcass had been placed in its respective site. Cannibalism was observed on average after 70 days. The effect of sex-age class on direct contact was not proven in our study. The presented findings show that cannibalism in wild boar can play a substantial role in the ASF epidemic. These results highlighted the importance of the removal of infected carcasses from the habitat, which is crucial for African swine fever eradication.
- MeSH
- africký mor prasat epidemiologie přenos virologie MeSH
- ekosystém MeSH
- epidemie veterinární MeSH
- kanibalismus MeSH
- prasata MeSH
- roční období MeSH
- Sus scrofa MeSH
- virus afrického moru prasat fyziologie MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
- Klíčová slova
- Státní veterinární správa,
- MeSH
- africký mor prasat * epidemiologie MeSH
- epidemie veterinární MeSH
- infekční nemoci MeSH
- kontrola infekčních nemocí metody MeSH
- prasata MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal disease infectious to wild and domesticated suids. This disease entered the European Union in 2014 and recently reached western Europe, with the first cases observed in Belgium in September 2018. Carcasses of ASF-infected wild boar play an important role in the spread and persistence of the virus in the environment. Thus, rapidly finding and removing carcasses is a crucial measure for effective ASF control. Using distribution modelling, we investigated whether the fine-scale distribution of ASF-infected animals can be predicted and support wild boar carcass searches. Our results suggest that ASF-infected wild boar selected deathbeds in cool and moist habitats; thus, deathbed choice was mostly influenced by topographic and water-dependent covariates. Furthermore, we show that in the case of an epidemic, it is important to quickly collect a minimum of 75-100 carcasses with exact locations to build a well-performing and efficient carcass distribution model. The proposed model provides an indication of where carcasses are most likely to be found and can be used as a guide to strategically allocate resources.
- MeSH
- africký mor prasat epidemiologie prevence a kontrola virologie MeSH
- ekosystém MeSH
- epidemie veterinární MeSH
- Evropská unie MeSH
- prasata MeSH
- Sus scrofa MeSH
- virus afrického moru prasat izolace a purifikace MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Evropa MeSH
