With ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree-ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species-dependent and less well-known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan-European tree-ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed-effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate-dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021-2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952-2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R2 = 0.38-0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2-4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%-18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%-21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate-driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%-24% growth increase in the high-elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (-10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water-limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability.
- Klíčová slova
- Fagus sylvatica, climate change, climate sensitivity, drought, growth projection, leading edge, trailing edge, tree rings,
- MeSH
- buk (rod) * růst a vývoj fyziologie MeSH
- klimatické změny * MeSH
- lesy MeSH
- období sucha MeSH
- teplota MeSH
- voda metabolismus MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Evropa MeSH
- Názvy látek
- voda MeSH
Global biodiversity is affected by numerous environmental drivers. Yet, the extent to which global environmental changes contribute to changes in local diversity is poorly understood. We investigated biodiversity changes in a meta-analysis of 39 resurvey studies in European temperate forests (3988 vegetation records in total, 17-75 years between the two surveys) by assessing the importance of (i) coarse-resolution (i.e., among sites) vs. fine-resolution (i.e., within sites) environmental differences and (ii) changing environmental conditions between surveys. Our results clarify the mechanisms underlying the direction and magnitude of local-scale biodiversity changes. While not detecting any net local diversity loss, we observed considerable among-site variation, partly explained by temporal changes in light availability (a local driver) and density of large herbivores (a regional driver). Furthermore, strong evidence was found that presurvey levels of nitrogen deposition determined subsequent diversity changes. We conclude that models forecasting future biodiversity changes should consider coarse-resolution environmental changes, account for differences in baseline environmental conditions and for local changes in fine-resolution environmental conditions.
- Klíčová slova
- Shannon diversity, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, evenness, forest management, forestREplot, game browsing, spatiotemporal resurvey data, species richness,
- MeSH
- biodiverzita * MeSH
- býložravci * MeSH
- časové faktory MeSH
- lesnictví * MeSH
- lesy * MeSH
- podnebí * MeSH
- znečištění ovzduší škodlivé účinky MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- metaanalýza MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Evropa MeSH
