In Central Europe, the most abundant aphid infesting the leaves of small grain cereals is Metopolophium dirhodum (Walker) (Homoptera: Aphididae). Annual variation in its seasonal dynamics was evaluated using a 25-yr series of standardized weekly censuses of winter wheat plots. M. dirhodum made up >50 % of the aphids on the foliage. Date of immigration (8 May-3 July), length of period of population increase (0-9 wk), and date of attaining maximum abundance (28 May-22 July) varied greatly. For the prediction, we regressed maximum numbers/tiller on numbers recorded in the first week after heading. The regression of maximum abundance on nonzero aphid counts revealed a critical number of ≥1.50 aphids/tiller, which if exceeded resulted in a harmful maximum abundance of ≥10 aphids/tiller at the peak. Zero aphid counts resulted in 10% of cases with a harmful maximum abundance. Using this regression for prediction will result in 18% of the recorded cases being false negatives and 9% false positives. Parallel annual variation in the average maximum numbers of M. dirhodum, Sitobion avenae (Fabricius) (Homoptera: Aphididae), and Rhopalosiphum padi (Linné) (Homoptera: Aphididae) indicated the following factors that affected their abundance: temperature in winter and host plant quality. The predictions apply only in areas where M. dirhodum is holocyclic and aphids do not overwinter in wheat stands.

• Klíčová slova
• Rhopalosiphum padi, Sitobion avenae, aphid, forecast, population dynamics,
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