Until causal prophylaxis is available, the avoidance of ticks and personal protection provide the best insurance against contracting a tick-borne disease (TBD). To support public precaution, tick-activity forecasts (TAFs) based on weather projection are provided online for some regions/countries. This study-aimed at evaluating the efficacy of this preventative strategy-was conducted between 2015 and 2019, and included two countries where TAFs are issued regularly (Czech Republic, Germany) and two neighbouring countries for reference (Austria, Switzerland). Google Trends (GT) data were used to trace public concern with TAFs and related health information. GTs were compared with epidemiological data on TBD cases and tick bites, wherever available. Computer simulations of presumable effectiveness under various scenarios were performed. This study showed that public access to TAFs/preventive information is infrequent and not optimally distributed over the season. Interest arises very early in midwinter and then starts to fall in spring/summer when human-tick contacts culminate. Consequently, a greater number of TBD cases are contracted beyond the period of maximum public responsiveness to prevention guidance. Simulations, nevertheless, indicate that there is a potential for doubling the prevention yield if risk assessment, in addition to tick activity, subsumes the population's exposure, and a real-time surrogate is proposed.

• Keywords
• Ixodes ricinus, prevention, tick bite, tick-borne diseases,
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a serious acute neuroinfection of humans caused by a tick-borne flavivirus. The disease is typically seasonal, linked to the host-seeking activity of Ixodes ricinus (predominantly nymphs), the principal European tick vector species. To address the need for accurate risk predictions of contracting TBE, data on 4,044 TBE cases reported in the Czech Republic during 2001-2006 were compared with questing activity of I. ricinus nymphs monitored weekly at a defined location for the same 6-year period. A time shift of 21 days between infected tick bite and recorded disease onset provided the optimal model for comparing the number of cases of TBE with numbers of questing nymphs. Mean annual distribution of TBE cases and tick counts showed a similar bimodal distribution. Significantly, the ratio of TBE cases to questing nymphs was highest in the summer-autumn period even though the number of questing nymphs peaked in the spring-summer period. However, this pattern changed during a period of extreme meteorological events of flooding and abnormally high temperatures, indicating that changes in climate affect the incidence of TBE. Previous studies failed to link human behavior with changes in incidence of TBE but showed extrinsic temperature impacts arbovirus replication. Hence, we hypothesize the apparent discrepancy between peak nymphal tick activity and greatest risk of contracting TBE is due to the effect of temperature on virus replication in the tick vector. Relative proportions of questing nymphs and the numbers of weeks in which they were found were greater in summer-autumn compared with spring-summer at near-ground temperatures >5°C and at standard day and weekly average temperatures of >15°C. Thus, during the summer-autumn period, the virus dose in infected tick bites is likely greater owing to increased virus replication at higher microclimatic temperatures, consequently increasing the relative risk of contracting TBE per summer-autumn tick bite. The data support the use of weather-based forecasts of tick attack risk (based on daytime ambient temperature) supplemented with weekly average temperature (as a proxy for virus replication) to provide much-needed real-time forecasts of TBE risk.

• Keywords
• Ixodes ricinus, TBEV, arbovirus, climate change, seasonality, tick-borne encephalitis,
• MeSH
• Arachnid Vectors physiology   virology   MeSH
• Incidence MeSH
• Ixodes physiology   virology   MeSH
• Encephalitis, Tick-Borne epidemiology   transmission   virology   MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Weather MeSH
• Seasons MeSH
• Temperature MeSH
• Encephalitis Viruses, Tick-Borne genetics   isolation & purification   physiology   MeSH
• Animals MeSH
• Check Tag
• Humans MeSH
• Animals MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
• Geographicals
• Czech Republic epidemiology   MeSH