INTRODUCTION: Recently, the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) has published an update on the Global Strategy for Prevention, Diagnosis and Management of COPD, introducing a new classification of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our aim was to assess the prognostic value of the new GOLD classification system in comparison with the previous GOLD classification systems (GOLD stages I-IV and GOLD groups A-D) and the BODE index. METHODS: We used the data of 784 patients with COPD from the Czech Multicenter Research Database of COPD. Patient survival was analyzed with the use of Kaplan-Meier estimate and Cox model of proportional risks. ROC analysis and area under curve (AUC) were used for comparison of GOLD classifications and BODE index. The analyses were performed with the use of software R (version 4.2.0). RESULTS: We analyzed data of 782 patients with complete data on GOLD classifications. The study population comprised 72.9% of men, 89.1% current or former smokers, with a mean age of 66.6 years, a mean BMI of 27.4 and a mean FEV1 44.9% of predicted. Probability of 5-year survival differed by GOLD classification. Application of the 2023 GOLD classification showed increased risk of death in group B (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.14-2.92; p = 0.013) and in group E (HR 2.48, 95% CI 1.54-3.99; p˂0.001). The ROC analysis showed that the overall prognostic value of the 2023 GOLD classification was similarly weak to previous A-D GOLD classification schemes (AUCs 0.557-0.576) and was lower compared to the GOLD 1-4 system (AUC 0.614) and even lower when compared to the BODE index (AUC 0.715). CONCLUSION: We concluded that the new GOLD classification system has poor prognostic properties and that specific prediction tools (eg, the BODE index) should be used for mortality risk assessment.

• Keywords
• COPD, GOLD classification, mortality, prognosis,
• MeSH
• Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive * diagnosis   therapy   MeSH
• Risk Assessment MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Prognosis MeSH
• Disease Progression MeSH
• Proportional Hazards Models MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Severity of Illness Index MeSH
• Check Tag
• Humans MeSH
• Male MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Multicenter Study MeSH

INTRODUCTION: The concept of phenotyping emerged, reflecting specific clinical, pulmonary and extrapulmonary features of each particular chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) case. Our aim was to analyze prognostic utility of: "Czech" COPD phenotypes and their most frequent combinations, "Spanish" phenotypes and Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stages + groups in relation to long-term mortality risk. METHODS: Data were extracted from the Czech Multicenter Research Database (CMRD) of COPD. Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimates (at 60 months from inclusion) were used for mortality assessment. Survival rates were calculated for the six elementary "Czech" phenotypes and their most frequent and relevant combinations, "Spanish" phenotypes, GOLD grades and groups. Statistically significant differences were tested by Log Rank test. An analysis of factors underlying mortality risk (the role of confounders) has been assessed with the use of classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Basic factors showing significant differences between deceased and living patients were entered into the CART model. This showed six different risk groups, the differences in risk were tested by a Log Rank test. RESULTS: The cohort (n=720) was 73.1% men, with a mean age of 66.6 years and mean FEV1 44.4% pred. KM estimates showed bronchiectases/COPD overlap (HR 1.425, p=0.045), frequent exacerbator (HR 1.58, p<0.001), cachexia (HR 2.262, p<0.001) and emphysematous (HR 1.786, p=0.015) phenotypes associated with higher mortality risk. Co-presence of multiple phenotypes in a single patient had additive effect on risk; combination of emphysema, cachexia and frequent exacerbations translated into poorest prognosis (HR 3.075; p<0.001). Of the "Spanish" phenotypes, AE CB and AE non-CB were associated with greater risk of mortality (HR 1.787 and 2.001; both p=0.001). FEV1% pred., cachexia and chronic heart failure in patient history were the major underlying factors determining mortality risk in our cohort. CONCLUSION: Certain phenotypes ("Czech" or "Spanish") of COPD are associated with higher risk of death. Co-presence of multiple phenotypes (emphysematous plus cachectic plus frequent exacerbator) in a single individual was associated with amplified risk of mortality.

• Keywords
• chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; COPD, classification and regression tree; CART, cluster, mortality, phenotypes,
• MeSH
• Bronchitis, Chronic * MeSH
• Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive * diagnosis   MeSH
• Phenotype MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Disease Progression MeSH
• Prospective Studies MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Check Tag
• Humans MeSH
• Male MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Female MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Multicenter Study MeSH
• Geographicals
• Spain MeSH