BACKGROUND: Widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has reduced vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). We describe the serotype distribution of IPD after extensive use of ten-valent PCV (PCV10; Synflorix, GSK) and 13-valent PCV (PCV13; Prevenar 13, Pfizer) globally. METHODS: IPD data were obtained from surveillance sites participating in the WHO-commissioned Pneumococcal Serotype Replacement and Distribution Estimation (PSERENADE) project that exclusively used PCV10 or PCV13 (hereafter PCV10 and PCV13 sites, respectively) in their national immunisation programmes and had primary series uptake of at least 70%. Serotype distribution was estimated for IPD cases occurring 5 years or more after PCV10 or PCV13 introduction (ie, the mature period when the serotype distribution had stabilised) using multinomial Dirichlet regression, stratified by PCV product and age group (<5 years, 5-17 years, 18-49 years, and ≥50 years). FINDINGS: The analysis included cases occurring primarily between 2015 and 2018 from 42 PCV13 sites (63 362 cases) and 12 PCV10 sites (6806 cases) in 41 countries. Sites were mostly high income (36 [67%] of 54) and used three-dose or four-dose booster schedules (44 [81%]). At PCV10 sites, PCV10 serotypes caused 10·0% (95% CI 6·3-12·9) of IPD cases in children younger than 5 years and 15·5% (13·4-19·3) of cases in adults aged 50 years or older, while PCV13 serotypes caused 52·1% (49·2-65·4) and 45·6% (40·0-50·0), respectively. At PCV13 sites, PCV13 serotypes caused 26·4% (21·3-30·0) of IPD cases in children younger than 5 years and 29·5% (27·5-33·0) of cases in adults aged 50 years or older. The leading serotype at PCV10 sites was 19A in children younger than 5 years (30·6% [95% CI 18·2-43·1]) and adults aged 50 years or older (14·8% [11·9-17·8]). Serotype 3 was a top-ranked serotype, causing about 9% of cases in children younger than 5 years and 14% in adults aged 50 years or older at both PCV10 and PCV13 sites. Across all age and PCV10 or PCV13 strata, the proportion of IPD targeted by higher-valency PCVs beyond PCV13 was 4·1-9·7% for PCV15, 13·5-36·0% for PCV20, 29·9-53·8% for PCV21, 15·6-42·0% for PCV24, and 31·5-50·1% for PCV25. All top-ten ranked non-PCV13 serotypes are included in at least one higher-valency PCV. INTERPRETATION: The proportion of IPD due to serotypes included in PCVs in use was low in mature PCV10 and PCV13 settings. Serotype distribution differed between PCV10 and PCV13 sites and age groups. Higher-valency PCVs target most remaining IPD and are expected to extend impact. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation as part of the WHO Pneumococcal Vaccines Technical Coordination Project.

• MeSH
• Global Health MeSH
• Child MeSH
• Adult MeSH
• Infant MeSH
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Adolescent MeSH
• Young Adult MeSH
• Immunization Programs MeSH
• Pneumococcal Infections * prevention & control   epidemiology   microbiology   MeSH
• Pneumococcal Vaccines * administration & dosage   immunology   MeSH
• Child, Preschool MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Serogroup * MeSH
• Streptococcus pneumoniae * classification   immunology   isolation & purification   MeSH
• Vaccines, Conjugate immunology   administration & dosage   MeSH
• Check Tag
• Child MeSH
• Adult MeSH
• Infant MeSH
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Adolescent MeSH
• Young Adult MeSH
• Male MeSH
• Child, Preschool MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Female MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Names of Substances
• 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine MeSH Browser
• 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine MeSH Browser
• Pneumococcal Vaccines * MeSH
• Vaccines, Conjugate MeSH

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) that are ten-valent (PCV10) and 13-valent (PCV13) became available in 2010. We evaluated their global impact on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence in all ages. METHODS: Serotype-specific IPD cases and population denominators were obtained directly from surveillance sites using PCV10 or PCV13 in their national immunisation programmes and with a primary series uptake of at least 50%. Annual incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated comparing the incidence before any PCV with each year post-PCV10 or post-PCV13 introduction using Bayesian multi-level, mixed-effects Poisson regressions, by site and age group. All site-weighted average IRRs were estimated using linear mixed-effects regression, stratified by product and previous seven-valent PCV (PCV7) effect (none, moderate, or substantial). FINDINGS: Analyses included 32 PCV13 sites (488 758 cases) and 15 PCV10 sites (46 386 cases) in 30 countries, primarily high income (39 sites), using booster dose schedules (41 sites). By 6 years after PCV10 or PCV13 introduction, IPD due to PCV10-type serotypes and PCV10-related serotype 6A declined substantially for both products (age <5 years: 83-99% decline; ≥65 years: 54-96% decline). PCV7-related serotype 19A increases before PCV10 or PCV13 introduction were reversed at PCV13 sites (age <5 years: 61-79% decline relative to before any PCV; age ≥65 years: 7-26% decline) but increased at PCV10 sites (age <5 years: 1·6-2·3-fold; age ≥65 years: 3·6-4·9-fold). Serotype 3 IRRs had no consistent trends for either product or age group. Non-PCV13-type IPD increased similarly for both products (age <5 years: 2·3-3·3-fold; age ≥65 years: 1·7-2·3-fold). Despite different serotype 19A trends, all-serotype IPD declined similarly between products among children younger than 5 years (58-74%); among adults aged 65 years or older, declines were greater at PCV13 (25-29%) than PCV10 (4-14%) sites, but other differences between sites precluded attribution to product. INTERPRETATION: Long-term use of PCV10 or PCV13 reduced IPD substantially in young children and more moderately in older ages. Non-vaccine-type serotypes increased approximately two-fold to three-fold by 6 years after introduction of PCV10 or PCV13. Continuing serotype 19A increases at PCV10 sites and declines at PCV13 sites suggest that PCV13 use would further reduce IPD at PCV10 sites. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation as part of the WHO Pneumococcal Vaccines Technical Coordination Project.

• MeSH
• Global Health MeSH
• Child MeSH
• Adult MeSH
• Incidence MeSH
• Infant MeSH
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Adolescent MeSH
• Young Adult MeSH
• Infant, Newborn MeSH
• Pneumococcal Infections * prevention & control   epidemiology   microbiology   MeSH
• Pneumococcal Vaccines * administration & dosage   immunology   MeSH
• Child, Preschool MeSH
• Aged, 80 and over MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Serogroup MeSH
• Streptococcus pneumoniae * immunology   classification   MeSH
• Vaccines, Conjugate immunology   administration & dosage   MeSH
• Check Tag
• Child MeSH
• Adult MeSH
• Infant MeSH
• Middle Aged MeSH
• Humans MeSH
• Adolescent MeSH
• Young Adult MeSH
• Male MeSH
• Infant, Newborn MeSH
• Child, Preschool MeSH
• Aged, 80 and over MeSH
• Aged MeSH
• Female MeSH
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH
• Names of Substances
• 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine MeSH Browser
• 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine MeSH Browser
• Pneumococcal Vaccines * MeSH
• Vaccines, Conjugate MeSH