qpAdm is a statistical tool that is often used for testing large sets of alternative admixture models for a target population. Despite its popularity, qpAdm remains untested on 2D stepping stone landscapes and in situations with low prestudy odds (low ratio of true to false models). We tested high-throughput qpAdm protocols with typical properties such as number of source combinations per target, model complexity, model feasibility criteria, etc. Those protocols were applied to admixture graph-shaped and stepping stone simulated histories sampled randomly or systematically. We demonstrate that false discovery rates of high-throughput qpAdm protocols exceed 50% for many parameter combinations since: (1) prestudy odds are low and fall rapidly with increasing model complexity; (2) complex migration networks violate the assumptions of the method; hence, there is poor correlation between qpAdm P-values and model optimality, contributing to low but nonzero false-positive rate and low power; and (3) although admixture fraction estimates between 0 and 1 are largely restricted to symmetric configurations of sources around a target, a small fraction of asymmetric highly nonoptimal models have estimates in the same interval, contributing to the false-positive rate. We also reinterpret large sets of qpAdm models from 2 studies in terms of source-target distance and symmetry and suggest improvements to qpAdm protocols: (1) temporal stratification of targets and proxy sources in the case of admixture graph-shaped histories, (2) focused exploration of few models for increasing prestudy odds; and (3) dense landscape sampling for increasing power and stringent conditions on estimated admixture fractions for decreasing the false-positive rate.

• Klíčová slova
• qpAdm, admixture graphs, archaeogenetics, genetic admixture, simulation, stepping stone models,
• MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• modely genetické * MeSH
• populační genetika * metody   MeSH
• software * MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

qpAdm is a statistical tool that is often used for testing large sets of alternative admixture models for a target population. Despite its popularity, qpAdm remains untested on two-dimensional stepping-stone landscapes and in situations with low pre-study odds (low ratio of true to false models). We tested high-throughput qpAdm protocols with typical properties such as number of source combinations per target, model complexity, model feasibility criteria, etc. Those protocols were applied to admixture-graph-shaped and stepping-stone simulated histories sampled randomly or systematically. We demonstrate that false discovery rates of high-throughput qpAdm protocols exceed 50% for many parameter combinations since: 1) pre-study odds are low and fall rapidly with increasing model complexity; 2) complex migration networks violate the assumptions of the method, hence there is poor correlation between qpAdm p-values and model optimality, contributing to low but non-zero false positive rate and low power; 3) although admixture fraction estimates between 0 and 1 are largely restricted to symmetric configurations of sources around a target, a small fraction of asymmetric highly non-optimal models have estimates in the same interval, contributing to the false positive rate. We also re-interpret large sets of qpAdm models from two studies in terms of source-target distance and symmetry and suggest improvements to qpAdm protocols: 1) temporal stratification of targets and proxy sources in the case of admixture-graph-shaped histories; 2) focused exploration of few models for increasing pre-study odds; 3) dense landscape sampling for increasing power and stringent conditions on estimated admixture fractions for decreasing the false positive rate.

• Klíčová slova
• admixture graphs, archaeogenetics, genetic admixture, qpAdm, simulation, stepping-stone models,
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• preprinty MeSH

Our knowledge of human evolutionary history has been greatly advanced by paleogenomics. Since the 2020s, the study of ancient DNA has increasingly focused on reconstructing the recent past. However, the accuracy of paleogenomic methods in resolving questions of historical and archaeological importance amidst the increased demographic complexity and decreased genetic differentiation remains an open question. We evaluated the performance and behavior of two commonly used methods, qpAdm and the f3-statistic, on admixture inference under a diversity of demographic models and data conditions. We performed two complementary simulation approaches-firstly exploring a wide demographic parameter space under four simple demographic models of varying complexities and configurations using branch-length data from two chromosomes-and secondly, we analyzed a model of Eurasian history composed of 59 populations using whole-genome data modified with ancient DNA conditions such as SNP ascertainment, data missingness, and pseudohaploidization. We observe that population differentiation is the primary factor driving qpAdm performance. Notably, while complex gene flow histories influence which models are classified as plausible, they do not reduce overall performance. Under conditions reflective of the historical period, qpAdm most frequently identifies the true model as plausible among a small candidate set of closely related populations. To increase the utility for resolving fine-scaled hypotheses, we provide a heuristic for further distinguishing between candidate models that incorporates qpAdm model P-values and f3-statistics. Finally, we demonstrate a significant performance increase for qpAdm using whole-genome branch-length f2-statistics, highlighting the potential for improved demographic inference that could be achieved with future advancements in f-statistic estimations.

• Klíčová slova
• f-statistics, aDNA, admixture, ancient DNA, archaeogenetics, paleogenomics, qpAdm,
• MeSH
• demografie MeSH
• genomika * metody   MeSH
• modely genetické MeSH
• paleontologie * metody   MeSH
• software MeSH
• správnost dat MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

Paleogenomics has expanded our knowledge of human evolutionary history. Since the 2020s, the study of ancient DNA has increased its focus on reconstructing the recent past. However, the accuracy of paleogenomic methods in answering questions of historical and archaeological importance amidst the increased demographic complexity and decreased genetic differentiation within the historical period remains an open question. We used two simulation approaches to evaluate the limitations and behavior of commonly used methods, qpAdm and the f3-statistic, on admixture inference. The first is based on branch-length data simulated from four simple demographic models of varying complexities and configurations. The second, an analysis of Eurasian history composed of 59 populations using whole-genome data modified with ancient DNA conditions such as SNP ascertainment, data missingness, and pseudo-haploidization. We show that under conditions resembling historical populations, qpAdm can identify a small candidate set of true sources and populations closely related to them. However, in typical ancient DNA conditions, qpAdm is unable to further distinguish between them, limiting its utility for resolving fine-scaled hypotheses. Notably, we find that complex gene-flow histories generally lead to improvements in the performance of qpAdm and observe no bias in the estimation of admixture weights. We offer a heuristic for admixture inference that incorporates admixture weight estimate and P-values of qpAdm models, and f3-statistics to enhance the power to distinguish between multiple plausible candidates. Finally, we highlight the future potential of qpAdm through whole-genome branch-length f2-statistics, demonstrating the improved demographic inference that could be achieved with advancements in f-statistic estimations.

• Klíčová slova
• aDNA, admixture, archaeogenetics, f-statistics, paleogenomics, qpAdm,
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• preprinty MeSH