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Short-term prediction of coronary heart disease mortality in the Czech Republic based on data from 1968-2014
J. Reissigová, M. Zvolský
Language English Country Czech Republic
Document type Journal Article
Digital library NLK
Source
NLK
Free Medical Journals
from 2004
ProQuest Central
from 2009-03-01 to 6 months ago
Medline Complete (EBSCOhost)
from 2006-03-01 to 6 months ago
Nursing & Allied Health Database (ProQuest)
from 2009-03-01 to 6 months ago
Health & Medicine (ProQuest)
from 2009-03-01 to 6 months ago
Public Health Database (ProQuest)
from 2009-03-01 to 6 months ago
ROAD: Directory of Open Access Scholarly Resources
from 1993
PubMed
29684291
DOI
10.21101/cejph.a4936
Knihovny.cz E-resources
- MeSH
- Adult MeSH
- Coronary Disease mortality MeSH
- Middle Aged MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Risk Factors MeSH
- Aged, 80 and over MeSH
- Aged MeSH
- Age Distribution MeSH
- Check Tag
- Adult MeSH
- Middle Aged MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Male MeSH
- Aged, 80 and over MeSH
- Aged MeSH
- Female MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Geographicals
- Czech Republic MeSH
OBJECTIVES: The aim was to explore the patterns of the coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates over the past almost 50 years (1968-2014) in the Czech Republic, and to predict the mortality rates in 2015-2019. METHODS: The number of deaths from CHD and the population size were stratified by sex and age. The mortality rates were age-standardized to European population. Their values in 2015-2019 were estimated using the joinpoint log-linear regression, local log-linear regression and negative binomial log-linear regression, separately for males and females. RESULTS: A positive change in the trend of the age-standardized mortality rates from CHD was detected after the collapse of communism in 1989. In 1991-2000, the mortality trend was sharply downward, with an annual percent change of -5.8 % for males and -5.2 % for females. In 2000-2014, the decreasing trend was not so sharp (-1.3 % for males and -0.7% for females), yet it should continue in 2015-2019. The crude mortality rates for females are slightly higher than those for males since 2007, however, they are increasing for both sexes. The mortality rates are rising mainly in the age group of 85+ years (in 2014, 25.4% of CHD deaths of males and 54.4% of females occurred at the age of 85+ years). CONCLUSIONS: The age-standardized mortality rates are predicted to decrease in 2015-2019, but the crude mortality rates should increase due to increase in average life expectancy. The burden of deaths is moving to the age group of 85 years and older, mainly in females. A total of 26,039 CHD deaths were registered in the Czech Republic in 2014, and 29,653 are predicted for 2019, if the current trends continue.
Institute of Computer Science Czech Academy of Sciences Prague Czech Republic
Institute of Health Information and Statistics Prague Czech Republic
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